Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.</li>
<li>Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
</ul>


Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.


Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.</li>
<li>For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.</li>
<li>Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.</li>
</ul>


Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.
For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.
Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.


Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.</li>
<li>However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.</li>
<li>The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.
However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.
The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.


Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 3.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 3.1%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was down by 6.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.6% of the index) was down 2.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 10.3%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 6.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: AEVA, WAVE, PEV, PTRA, QS, PGTK, EFLVF, NXH, LIS, TMC</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 3.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 3.1%).Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was down by 6.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.6% of the index) was down 2.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 10.3%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 6.7%.Top 10 Performers: AEVA, WAVE, PEV, PTRA, QS, PGTK, EFLVF, NXH, LIS, TMC

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor  - Week Ended January 5, 2024

United States

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

NASDAQ Composite Index (CCMP INDEX)

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

A consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports...

Vermilion Research

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

The quick answer is that the Magnificent 7 are not a significant threat to the risk-return characteristics of your portfolio. However, the case for...

Jeroen Blokland

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended January 5, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 3.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research