TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. </li>
<li>Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.</li>
<li>Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. </li>
</ul>


Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. 
Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.
Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. 


Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Communication Services allocations among active Global managers are at their lowest levels on record.</li>
<li>Average weights stand at an all-time low of 7.12%, having broken out of a decade long range of between 8% - 10% towards the end of 2021.</li>
<li>Activision Blizzard suffered the worst of the position closures, alongside Meta Platforms, Tencent and Nintendo Co Ltd.</li>
</ul>


Communication Services allocations among active Global managers are at their lowest levels on record.
Average weights stand at an all-time low of 7.12%, having broken out of a decade long range of between 8% - 10% towards the end of 2021.
Activision Blizzard suffered the worst of the position closures, alongside Meta Platforms, Tencent and Nintendo Co Ltd.


Global Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

The Pinkfong Company / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The Pinkfong Company was valued at about 1 trillion won, according to local reports in early 2022. Samsung Publishing (068290 KS) owns a 16.8% stake in The Pink Fong company.</li>
<li>For now, The Pinkfong Company does not have any near term plans for an IPO. However, it may try to complete its IPO sometime in 2023/2024.</li>
<li>The Pinkfong Company's sales increased by nearly 500% in the US to reach 24.9 billion in 2021, accounting for 30% of the company's total sales in 2021.</li>
</ul>


The Pinkfong Company was valued at about 1 trillion won, according to local reports in early 2022. Samsung Publishing (068290 KS) owns a 16.8% stake in The Pink Fong company.
For now, The Pinkfong Company does not have any near term plans for an IPO. However, it may try to complete its IPO sometime in 2023/2024.
The Pinkfong Company's sales increased by nearly 500% in the US to reach 24.9 billion in 2021, accounting for 30% of the company's total sales in 2021.


The Pinkfong Company: Baby Shark Unicorn in Korea

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Disney delivered another all-around beat and its strong results were driven by a stellar performance at its domestic theme parks, increases in live sports viewership across its linear channels and ESPN+, and significant subscriber growth at its streaming services.</li><li>The company had 221 million subscribers overall as of the end of the third quarter for its streaming service finally surpassing rival Netflix.</li><li>Their results demonstrate the Walt Disney Company's potential to power its ecosystem and explore development prospects across industries and distribution channels thanks to its distinctively diversified businesses.</li></ul>

Disney delivered another all-around beat and its strong results were driven by a stellar performance at its domestic theme parks, increases in live sports viewership across its linear channels and ESPN+, and significant subscriber growth at its streaming services.The company had 221 million subscribers overall as of the end of the third quarter for its streaming service finally surpassing rival Netflix.Their results demonstrate the Walt Disney Company's potential to power its ecosystem and explore development prospects across industries and distribution channels thanks to its distinctively diversified businesses.

Walt Disney Company: The HYBE Partnership

<ul>
<li>This week, Thirdpoint's Dan Loeb wrote a letter to Disney asking it to cut costs, spin ESPN, and buy in Hulu.</li>
<li>We agreed with Loeb two years ago, but don't see the strategic rationale this time around...Disney isn't bloated, needs ESPN's FCF, and doesn't need to spend $9B on Hulu today.</li>
<li>We do agree with Loeb's points about not reinstating the dividend (better use of FCF on Disney + and other investments) and refreshing a (strangely weird) Board of Directors.</li>
</ul>


This week, Thirdpoint's Dan Loeb wrote a letter to Disney asking it to cut costs, spin ESPN, and buy in Hulu.
We agreed with Loeb two years ago, but don't see the strategic rationale this time around...Disney isn't bloated, needs ESPN's FCF, and doesn't need to spend $9B on Hulu today.
We do agree with Loeb's points about not reinstating the dividend (better use of FCF on Disney + and other investments) and refreshing a (strangely weird) Board of Directors.


United States

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. broadcasts various channels of audio from its satellites. The Company provides its services throughout the continental United States for a monthly subscription fee. Sirius delivers various streams of commercial-free music in every genre, as well as streams of  news, sports, weather, talk, comedy, and public radio.

News Corporation operates in the publishing industry. The Company provides publications consisting of newspapers, magazines, books and promotional inserts.

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. produces live concerts and sells tickets to those events over the Internet. The Company also offers ticketing services for leading arenas, stadiums, professional sports franchises and leagues, college sports teams, performing arts venues, museums and theaters.

The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. is an organization of advertising agencies and marketing service companies.  The Company operates globally in the sectors of advertising, independent media buying, direct marketing, healthcare communications, interactive consulting services, marketing research, promotions, experiential marketing, public relations, and sports marketing.

Omnicom Group Inc. provides advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The Company's agencies, which operate in major markets around the world, provide a comprehensive range of services including traditional media advertising; customer relationship management ("CRM"); public relations; and specialty communications.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. is a professional sports company that owns and operates sports franchises.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS US)

The New York Times Company operates media businesses.  The Company publishes daily newspapers and operates Internet websites.  The newspapers and websites distribute news and entertainment.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Liberty Broadband Corporation invests in communication companies. The Company has principal assets in TruePosition and Time Warner Cable.

Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc, is a television broadcasting company focused on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations in medium using traditional media, e-MEDIA, digital and mobile media platforms. Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc offers its services in the central east part of United States.

Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc (NXST US)

REA Group Limited provides online property listings, web development and internet related technology services to the real estate industry along with providing advertising services to Australian companies.  The Company also offers online real estate search services to the Australian public.

Publicis Groupe SA offers advertising services.  The Company develops advertising campaigns and sells advertising on billboards and urban furniture, in newspapers and magazines, on radio, and in movie theaters.  Publicis offers direct marketing, customer relationship marketing, sales promotion, public relations and human resources services, and operates retail drugstores.

Informa PLC provides business information on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides information in the finance and insurance, maritime transport and trade, law and tax, telecom and media, commodities and energy, and biomedical and pharmaceutical global markets.  Informa provides its information through newspapers, magazines, electronic media, books, and journals.

Pearson plc provides education products and services to institutions, governments and individual learners in over 80 countries. The Company's major revenue markets are North America, 'Core' including the UK, Italy and Australia and 'Growth' including Brazil, China and South Africa. It also owns the Financial Times, 50% of the Economist and 47% of Penguin Random House.

TOHO CO., LTD. produces and distributes motion pictures for cinema, television, and video.  The Company also sells character merchandise based on their media productions, distributes foreign films, operates musical theaters, and produces musical shows. In addition, Toho manages movie theaters in urban areas.

DENTSU INC. mainly provides comprehensive advertising services.  The Company also provides marketing and event planning & promotion services.  Dentsu has associated companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.

TOKYO BROADCASTING SYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. is a media company that broadcasts television and radio programs nationally.  The Company offers a variety of TV programs & film production, visual & music software production, and cable television programming.  Tokyo Broadcasting System provides digital satellite broadcasting services and also operates real estate business.

Compagnie du Cambodge is an investment holding company that invests in companies active in agriculture, industry, real estate and finance.  The Company owns and operates plantations in Malaysia and forests in Cameroon.

JC Decaux SA offers advertising services.  The Company sells advertising on street furniture such as bus shelters, free standing panels, columns, and automatic toilets, billboards, and posters on buses, trains, and subways, and at railroad stations and airports.

CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA produces, sells, brokers and distributes entry tickets for concerts, theater productions, artistic, sporting and similar events. The Company operates an online booking system that allows event promoters to sell their tickets over a variety of distribution channels. CTS also sells tickets directly over the Internet and a call center and offers system support services.

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

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The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

We think Disney is stuck. DTC streaming service is the future of media, a fundamentally less attractive business model. Disney remains an excellent...

Aaron Gabin

Global Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Selling in Activision Blizzard, Meta Platforms, Tencent and Nintendo Co Ltd force Communication Services allocations to their lowest levels on record.

Steven Holden

The Pinkfong Company: Baby Shark Unicorn in Korea

The Pinkfong Company was recently valued at nearly 1 trillion won. Its Baby Shark video is the most ever viewed video on Youtube with more than 11...

Douglas Kim

Walt Disney Company: The HYBE Partnership

Disney delivered another all-around beat and its strong results were driven by a stellar performance at its domestic theme parks, increases in...

Baptista Research

Disney: Don’t Listen to Loeb

Dan Loeb offered five suggestions for Disney: cost cutting, no dividend, buy Hulu, Spin ESPN, & refresh the Board. We don't see viable cost cutting...

Aaron Gabin

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