TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Across the board miss as DTC losses peak, park margins weaken, and linear likely to fall off a cliff. </li>
<li>Big FY2023 guide down on revenues (HSD vs. LDD previously) and OI growth (HSD vs. ~25% consensus previously). </li>
<li>Disney profitability lower for longer as macro headwinds on parks, accelerating cord cutting, and pushed out D+ profitability means OI likely down $2B in both FY23-24.</li>
</ul>


Across the board miss as DTC losses peak, park margins weaken, and linear likely to fall off a cliff. 
Big FY2023 guide down on revenues (HSD vs. LDD previously) and OI growth (HSD vs. ~25% consensus previously). 
Disney profitability lower for longer as macro headwinds on parks, accelerating cord cutting, and pushed out D+ profitability means OI likely down $2B in both FY23-24.


Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 17 October, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWS AU)</a></strong> announced it had begun exploring a potential combination with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fox-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36135:1" rel="noopener">Fox Corporation (FOXA US)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>A merger of two parts of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire would combine Fox News and TMZ assets with NWS’ newspaper and online news operations.</li>
<li>Murdoch split his empire in 2013, placing the print business in a newly created NWS, and the TV and entertainment under Fox,</li>
</ul>


Back on the 17 October, News Corp (NWS AU) announced it had begun exploring a potential combination with Fox Corporation (FOXA US).
A merger of two parts of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire would combine Fox News and TMZ assets with NWS’ newspaper and online news operations.
Murdoch split his empire in 2013, placing the print business in a newly created NWS, and the TV and entertainment under Fox,


News Corp (NWS AU)'s Proposed Merger With Fox Corp. Again.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Private Capital Markets

UBTech Robotics / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>UBTech Robotics is a pioneer in AI and leader in intelligent humanoid robots. The company commercialized robots for consumers with a mission to deliver the affordable robot to each family. </li>
<li>UBTech Robotics has raised ~$940M in equity financing and closed an $820M Series C round in May 2018, the single largest funding ever for AI private company.</li>
<li>We were impressed by healthy growth at scale, diversified business lines, core AI and robotics technologies, and strong partnerships with Tencent, Apple, and Walt Disney. </li>
</ul>


UBTech Robotics is a pioneer in AI and leader in intelligent humanoid robots. The company commercialized robots for consumers with a mission to deliver the affordable robot to each family. 
UBTech Robotics has raised ~$940M in equity financing and closed an $820M Series C round in May 2018, the single largest funding ever for AI private company.
We were impressed by healthy growth at scale, diversified business lines, core AI and robotics technologies, and strong partnerships with Tencent, Apple, and Walt Disney. 


UBTech Robotics: China’s Global AI and High-Tech Robotics Unicorn

<ul>
<li>Netflix's stock has outperformed the market by 25% over the past quarter on faith that the new advertising tier will unlock the next leg of the growth narrative. </li>
<li>3Q22 had two of its biggest hits ever - Stranger Things and Dahmer, Netflix beat its own guidance of 1M by only 1.4M...APAC added 1.4M, most from low ARPU India</li>
<li>Pulling subscriber guidance is a yellow flag, as is the lack of details on how AVOD will be "neutral to positive" over time. </li>
</ul>


Netflix's stock has outperformed the market by 25% over the past quarter on faith that the new advertising tier will unlock the next leg of the growth narrative. 
3Q22 had two of its biggest hits ever - Stranger Things and Dahmer, Netflix beat its own guidance of 1M by only 1.4M...APAC added 1.4M, most from low ARPU India
Pulling subscriber guidance is a yellow flag, as is the lack of details on how AVOD will be "neutral to positive" over time. 


<ul>
<li>Netflix has had a slew of upgrades recently on bullish estimates for its coming advertising supported tier...with the upgrades buying into Netflix's exorbitant CPM demands.</li>
<li>We think advertising supported is revenue accretive for the US and Canada, but question how this works out internationally.</li>
<li>Disney is far better positioned for AVOD. It has a developed ad infrastructure, owns all its content, and has better brands to sell advertising against.</li>
</ul>


Netflix has had a slew of upgrades recently on bullish estimates for its coming advertising supported tier...with the upgrades buying into Netflix's exorbitant CPM demands.
We think advertising supported is revenue accretive for the US and Canada, but question how this works out internationally.
Disney is far better positioned for AVOD. It has a developed ad infrastructure, owns all its content, and has better brands to sell advertising against.


Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

United States

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. broadcasts various channels of audio from its satellites. The Company provides its services throughout the continental United States for a monthly subscription fee. Sirius delivers various streams of commercial-free music in every genre, as well as streams of  news, sports, weather, talk, comedy, and public radio.

News Corporation operates in the publishing industry. The Company provides publications consisting of newspapers, magazines, books and promotional inserts.

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. produces live concerts and sells tickets to those events over the Internet. The Company also offers ticketing services for leading arenas, stadiums, professional sports franchises and leagues, college sports teams, performing arts venues, museums and theaters.

The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. is an organization of advertising agencies and marketing service companies.  The Company operates globally in the sectors of advertising, independent media buying, direct marketing, healthcare communications, interactive consulting services, marketing research, promotions, experiential marketing, public relations, and sports marketing.

Omnicom Group Inc. provides advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The Company's agencies, which operate in major markets around the world, provide a comprehensive range of services including traditional media advertising; customer relationship management ("CRM"); public relations; and specialty communications.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. is a professional sports company that owns and operates sports franchises.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS US)

The New York Times Company operates media businesses.  The Company publishes daily newspapers and operates Internet websites.  The newspapers and websites distribute news and entertainment.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Liberty Broadband Corporation invests in communication companies. The Company has principal assets in TruePosition and Time Warner Cable.

Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc, is a television broadcasting company focused on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations in medium using traditional media, e-MEDIA, digital and mobile media platforms. Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc offers its services in the central east part of United States.

Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc (NXST US)

REA Group Limited provides online property listings, web development and internet related technology services to the real estate industry along with providing advertising services to Australian companies.  The Company also offers online real estate search services to the Australian public.

Publicis Groupe SA offers advertising services.  The Company develops advertising campaigns and sells advertising on billboards and urban furniture, in newspapers and magazines, on radio, and in movie theaters.  Publicis offers direct marketing, customer relationship marketing, sales promotion, public relations and human resources services, and operates retail drugstores.

Informa PLC provides business information on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides information in the finance and insurance, maritime transport and trade, law and tax, telecom and media, commodities and energy, and biomedical and pharmaceutical global markets.  Informa provides its information through newspapers, magazines, electronic media, books, and journals.

Pearson plc provides education products and services to institutions, governments and individual learners in over 80 countries. The Company's major revenue markets are North America, 'Core' including the UK, Italy and Australia and 'Growth' including Brazil, China and South Africa. It also owns the Financial Times, 50% of the Economist and 47% of Penguin Random House.

TOHO CO., LTD. produces and distributes motion pictures for cinema, television, and video.  The Company also sells character merchandise based on their media productions, distributes foreign films, operates musical theaters, and produces musical shows. In addition, Toho manages movie theaters in urban areas.

DENTSU INC. mainly provides comprehensive advertising services.  The Company also provides marketing and event planning & promotion services.  Dentsu has associated companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.

TOKYO BROADCASTING SYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. is a media company that broadcasts television and radio programs nationally.  The Company offers a variety of TV programs & film production, visual & music software production, and cable television programming.  Tokyo Broadcasting System provides digital satellite broadcasting services and also operates real estate business.

Compagnie du Cambodge is an investment holding company that invests in companies active in agriculture, industry, real estate and finance.  The Company owns and operates plantations in Malaysia and forests in Cameroon.

JC Decaux SA offers advertising services.  The Company sells advertising on street furniture such as bus shelters, free standing panels, columns, and automatic toilets, billboards, and posters on buses, trains, and subways, and at railroad stations and airports.

CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA produces, sells, brokers and distributes entry tickets for concerts, theater productions, artistic, sporting and similar events. The Company operates an online booking system that allows event promoters to sell their tickets over a variety of distribution channels. CTS also sells tickets directly over the Internet and a call center and offers system support services.

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses

Disney shockingly weak profitability outlook for FY2023 is more a reflection of the return of cord cutting to being issue #1 denting the model,...

Aaron Gabin

News Corp (NWS AU)'s Proposed Merger With Fox Corp. Again.

The merger remains very much in the exploratory stage. NWS is trading rich from a historical point of view Without the benefit of clarity on a...

David Blennerhassett

UBTech Robotics: China’s Global AI and High-Tech Robotics Unicorn

Tencent-backed UBTech Robotics is one of the key players in the global consumer robotics market, which is expected to reach ~$94B by 2028, growing...

Andrei Zakharov

Netflix 3Q22: Coast Is Clear?

Netflix's stock has outperformed by 25% over the past quarter on blind faith that the new advertising tier unlock incremental subs and margins. We...

Aaron Gabin

Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

Aince last quarter’s earnings Netflix is up 18%, outperforming the S&P by nearly 23%. 4 recent upgrades share the thesis that ads will stimulate...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)