TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Netflix has had a slew of upgrades recently on bullish estimates for its coming advertising supported tier...with the upgrades buying into Netflix's exorbitant CPM demands.</li>
<li>We think advertising supported is revenue accretive for the US and Canada, but question how this works out internationally.</li>
<li>Disney is far better positioned for AVOD. It has a developed ad infrastructure, owns all its content, and has better brands to sell advertising against.</li>
</ul>


Netflix has had a slew of upgrades recently on bullish estimates for its coming advertising supported tier...with the upgrades buying into Netflix's exorbitant CPM demands.
We think advertising supported is revenue accretive for the US and Canada, but question how this works out internationally.
Disney is far better positioned for AVOD. It has a developed ad infrastructure, owns all its content, and has better brands to sell advertising against.


Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

<ul>
<li>Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. </li>
<li>Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.</li>
<li>Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. </li>
</ul>


Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. 
Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.
Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. 


Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Communication Services allocations among active Global managers are at their lowest levels on record.</li>
<li>Average weights stand at an all-time low of 7.12%, having broken out of a decade long range of between 8% - 10% towards the end of 2021.</li>
<li>Activision Blizzard suffered the worst of the position closures, alongside Meta Platforms, Tencent and Nintendo Co Ltd.</li>
</ul>


Communication Services allocations among active Global managers are at their lowest levels on record.
Average weights stand at an all-time low of 7.12%, having broken out of a decade long range of between 8% - 10% towards the end of 2021.
Activision Blizzard suffered the worst of the position closures, alongside Meta Platforms, Tencent and Nintendo Co Ltd.


Global Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

The Pinkfong Company / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The Pinkfong Company was valued at about 1 trillion won, according to local reports in early 2022. Samsung Publishing (068290 KS) owns a 16.8% stake in The Pink Fong company.</li>
<li>For now, The Pinkfong Company does not have any near term plans for an IPO. However, it may try to complete its IPO sometime in 2023/2024.</li>
<li>The Pinkfong Company's sales increased by nearly 500% in the US to reach 24.9 billion in 2021, accounting for 30% of the company's total sales in 2021.</li>
</ul>


The Pinkfong Company was valued at about 1 trillion won, according to local reports in early 2022. Samsung Publishing (068290 KS) owns a 16.8% stake in The Pink Fong company.
For now, The Pinkfong Company does not have any near term plans for an IPO. However, it may try to complete its IPO sometime in 2023/2024.
The Pinkfong Company's sales increased by nearly 500% in the US to reach 24.9 billion in 2021, accounting for 30% of the company's total sales in 2021.


The Pinkfong Company: Baby Shark Unicorn in Korea

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Disney delivered another all-around beat and its strong results were driven by a stellar performance at its domestic theme parks, increases in live sports viewership across its linear channels and ESPN+, and significant subscriber growth at its streaming services.</li><li>The company had 221 million subscribers overall as of the end of the third quarter for its streaming service finally surpassing rival Netflix.</li><li>Their results demonstrate the Walt Disney Company's potential to power its ecosystem and explore development prospects across industries and distribution channels thanks to its distinctively diversified businesses.</li></ul>

Disney delivered another all-around beat and its strong results were driven by a stellar performance at its domestic theme parks, increases in live sports viewership across its linear channels and ESPN+, and significant subscriber growth at its streaming services.The company had 221 million subscribers overall as of the end of the third quarter for its streaming service finally surpassing rival Netflix.Their results demonstrate the Walt Disney Company's potential to power its ecosystem and explore development prospects across industries and distribution channels thanks to its distinctively diversified businesses.

Walt Disney Company: The HYBE Partnership

United States

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

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The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

Aince last quarter’s earnings Netflix is up 18%, outperforming the S&P by nearly 23%. 4 recent upgrades share the thesis that ads will stimulate...

Aaron Gabin

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

We think Disney is stuck. DTC streaming service is the future of media, a fundamentally less attractive business model. Disney remains an excellent...

Aaron Gabin

Global Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Selling in Activision Blizzard, Meta Platforms, Tencent and Nintendo Co Ltd force Communication Services allocations to their lowest levels on record.

Steven Holden

The Pinkfong Company: Baby Shark Unicorn in Korea

The Pinkfong Company was recently valued at nearly 1 trillion won. Its Baby Shark video is the most ever viewed video on Youtube with more than 11...

Douglas Kim

Walt Disney Company: The HYBE Partnership

Disney delivered another all-around beat and its strong results were driven by a stellar performance at its domestic theme parks, increases in...

Baptista Research

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