TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

Netflix 2Q22: Low Growth, Low FCF, Low (Management) Conviction

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TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Multiple negative data points have come out reflecting limited initial uptake for Netflix's ad-based tier.</li>
<li>(We think) Netflix lack of AVOD uptake is due to it being fully saturated in its major markets wheras competing services starting from scratch have higher AVOD uptake.</li>
<li>Lack of incremental subs from AVOD points towards a weaker than expected 4Q22 and downside to guidance...not good for a stock that has ripped since 2Q22 earnings.</li>
</ul>


Multiple negative data points have come out reflecting limited initial uptake for Netflix's ad-based tier.
(We think) Netflix lack of AVOD uptake is due to it being fully saturated in its major markets wheras competing services starting from scratch have higher AVOD uptake.
Lack of incremental subs from AVOD points towards a weaker than expected 4Q22 and downside to guidance...not good for a stock that has ripped since 2Q22 earnings.


Netflix Inc

Netflix AVOD Not Chill