Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have a Negative view of Soho China, despite the stock trading at 0.2x P/B. </li>
<li>The three biggest negative factors for the company include potential write down of assets, CFO being investigated for insider trading, and China's emphasis on zero COVID policy.</li>
<li>Two more significant concerning factors include 0.4 million people in China not able to withdraw their deposits and other large Chinese property developers defaulting on debt.</li>
</ul>


We have a Negative view of Soho China, despite the stock trading at 0.2x P/B. 
The three biggest negative factors for the company include potential write down of assets, CFO being investigated for insider trading, and China's emphasis on zero COVID policy.
Two more significant concerning factors include 0.4 million people in China not able to withdraw their deposits and other large Chinese property developers defaulting on debt.


Will the Chinese Government Rescue Soho China (Potential Write Down of Assets)?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ten months after China's SAMR torpedoed Blackstone's Offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">SOHO China (410 HK)</a> has fallen 61%. Its portfolio of high-quality properties are currently trading at 0.2x P/B. </li>
<li>Recent woes concern electricity price violations, tax evasion, and now an investigation into CFO Ni Kuiyang's alleged insider trading. </li>
<li>SOHO is trading cheap on a standalone basis; and to peers. This is still not a good reason to get involved.</li>
</ul>


Ten months after China's SAMR torpedoed Blackstone's Offer, SOHO China (410 HK) has fallen 61%. Its portfolio of high-quality properties are currently trading at 0.2x P/B. 
Recent woes concern electricity price violations, tax evasion, and now an investigation into CFO Ni Kuiyang's alleged insider trading. 
SOHO is trading cheap on a standalone basis; and to peers. This is still not a good reason to get involved.


<ul>
<li>Silchester's effort to raise awareness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku Bank (8382 JP)</a> failed. Still, if you had a basket of regional bank longs and shorts, Chugoku would be in the short basket. </li>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham reloads a higher Offer after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s rejection. This probably still needs a (small) bump in terms to get up. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>is trading at a significant discount to its SOTP. A part of its Fintech segment (Rakuten Bank) could be worth ~50% of total market cap.</li>
</ul>


Silchester's effort to raise awareness in Chugoku Bank (8382 JP) failed. Still, if you had a basket of regional bank longs and shorts, Chugoku would be in the short basket. 
Dye &amp; Durham reloads a higher Offer after Link Administration (LNK AU)'s rejection. This probably still needs a (small) bump in terms to get up. 

Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)is trading at a significant discount to its SOTP. A part of its Fintech segment (Rakuten Bank) could be worth ~50% of total market cap.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Chugoku Bank, Link Admin, Rakuten, Tassal, Pipedo

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law which increases the odds that the headcount test remains for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>'s court meeting on 26 April. </li>
<li>Since the despatch of the scheme document, the gross spread has narrowed to 7.6% (last close). Current deal probability implies an 80% chance of success.</li>
<li>The rising deal probability negatively skews the risk/reward profile. We are hesitant to be long this trade into a scheme meeting that is too close to call.</li>
</ul>


The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law which increases the odds that the headcount test remains for Razer Inc (1337 HK)'s court meeting on 26 April. 
Since the despatch of the scheme document, the gross spread has narrowed to 7.6% (last close). Current deal probability implies an 80% chance of success.
The rising deal probability negatively skews the risk/reward profile. We are hesitant to be long this trade into a scheme meeting that is too close to call.


Razer’s Offer Risk/Reward Ahead of the 26 April Scheme Meeting

<ul>
<li>China's State Administration for Market Supervision is reviewing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>'s privatisation as a simple case. </li>
<li>With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, the Scheme timeline will significantly shorten from hereon. </li>
<li>Expect shares to narrow into terms at the bell tomorrow. </li>
</ul>


China's State Administration for Market Supervision is reviewing Razer Inc (1337 HK)'s privatisation as a simple case. 
With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, the Scheme timeline will significantly shorten from hereon. 
Expect shares to narrow into terms at the bell tomorrow. 


Razer (1337 HK): SAMR Takes It On In Simple Procedure

China

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. operates real estate businesses. The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, property management, and other services. Guangzhou R&F Properties also operates hotel management.

YunNan Metropolitan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. operates in property development business. It also manufactures and markets beer and fruit wines, plastic film for agricultural use and grows chinaberry.

Shanghai Infotmic Co., Ltd. is a professional integrated circuit design company, focusing on the research and development of mobile Internet terminal application processor chip.

Zhejiang Guangsha Co., Ltd. develops real estate and undertakes construction projects.  The Company also provides travel services and operates in property management.

Beijing Electronic Zone Investment and Development Co. Ltd. operates as a real estate developer. The Company develops technology industrial parks and residential areas. Beijing Electronic Zone Investment and Development also conducts investment attractions, industry incubation, and industrial park operation businesses.

Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., LTD. develops residential properties. The company also markets and provides services to its related commercial properties.

Shanghai Tianchen Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company develops and manages real estate properties, provides taxi transportation services, offers driver training programs, operates parking lots and logistic zones, and manufactures pharmaceuticals. The Company also operates hotel and construction and renovation businesses.

Tianjin Jinbin Development Co., Ltd. operates a diversified business.  The Company provides construction machinery and tools leasing and rental service, sells general merchandise and real estate properties, distributes electricity and heat, and offers technology consulting services.

Shenzhen World Union Properties Consultancy Inc. develops and invests in real estate.  The Company also provides real estate agency, consultancy and management services, financial and asset management services.

Shenzhen Worldunion Proprts Cnsltncy (002285 CH)

Hubei Fuxing Science and Technology Co Ltd manufactures steel wire ropes, steel wires, and steel strands. The Company's products are used in tire manufacturing, telecommunication, and other industries. Hubei Fuxing also invests in real estate.

Hubei Fuxing Science & Technology (000926 CH)

PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk is an industrial property developer. The Company sells industrial estate, residential and commercial land.

Far East Consortium International Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate.  The Company also operates hotels.

Far East Consortium International (35 HK)

Sinarmas Land Ltd. invests in, develops and manages real estate.  The Company owns commercial buildings, hotels and resorts in China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

Nirlon Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company develops office parks.

KSL Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company develops properties. KSL Holdings performs all aspects of development from land purchasing to final property inspection.

PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, develop properties such as  malls, hotels, and office buildings. Duta Pertiwi Tbk serves clients in Indonesia.

Hung Sheng Construction Ltd. provides real estate services to meet both resident ial and commercial real estate needs.  The Company conducts primarily its busine ss in developing, selling, and leasing residential and commercial buildings whic h are constructed by independent constructors.

Tanco Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development and investment, hotel, vacation ownership interval and schemes, golf club, marina club, travel and tour agent, and resort.  Tanco also provides construction and money lending services.

Shin Ruenn Development Company Ltd. provides development and sale of residential and commercial buildings, villas, and office buildings. Shin Ruenn also produces video systems, drawing machines, and consumable parts.

Joy City Property Limited, is engaged in the development, operation, sale, leasing and management of mixed-use complexes and commercial properties such as shopping malls, hotels, offices, serviced apartments and resort and tourist properties.

Soho China Ltd. is a property developer. The Company develops properties in central Beijing and Shanghai. Soho China collaborates with internationally recognized architects, translating their designs into real estate which possesses strong appeal to property investors and the local businesses and customer bases they serve.

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Soho China (410 HK)

Will the Chinese Government Rescue Soho China (Potential Write Down of Assets)?

The three biggest negative factors for Soho China include potential write down of assets, CFO being investigated for insider trading, and China's...

Douglas Kim

SOHO China (410 HK): Still Toxic

The accusations have not stopped since Blackstone's Offer was thwarted. Avoid. SOHO's name was toxic as soon as SAMR dinged the deal. It is no less...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Chugoku Bank, Link Admin, Rakuten, Tassal, Pipedo

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Razer’s Offer Risk/Reward Ahead of the 26 April Scheme Meeting

The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law increasing the odds that the headcount test remains. We are hesitant to be long this trade into...

Arun George

Razer (1337 HK): SAMR Takes It On In Simple Procedure

SAMR is reviewing Razer Inc (1337 HK) privatisation as a simple case. With the key regulatory pre-condition all but satisfied, expect the Scheme...

David Blennerhassett

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