Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.For the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) there are 36 inclusions and 29 deletions, taking the number of index constituents up to 500.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. Secondary Listings are not eligible for inclusion in the Stock Connect program.Of the 36 inclusions, 4 are already a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, 2 are Secondary listings and will not be included in Stock Connect, 9 will be added to Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, while 21 stocks will only be added to Shenzhen Stock Connect.Of the 29 index deletions, 13 are not a part of Stock Connect, 7 will continue to remain a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, while 9 will be deleted from the Stock Connect program.We identify 4 stocks that could sell off ahead of their removal from the Stock Connect Buy list, while Biotech stocks could be in focus ahead of their inclusion in the Stock Connect Buy and Sell list.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.For the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) there are 36 inclusions and 29 deletions, taking the number of index constituents up to 500.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors. Secondary Listings are not eligible for inclusion in the Stock Connect program.Of the 36 inclusions, 4 are already a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, 2 are Secondary listings and will not be included in Stock Connect, 9 will be added to Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, while 21 stocks will only be added to Shenzhen Stock Connect.Of the 29 index deletions, 13 are not a part of Stock Connect, 7 will continue to remain a part of Stock Connect by virtue of having listed A-shares, while 9 will be deleted from the Stock Connect program.We identify 4 stocks that could sell off ahead of their removal from the Stock Connect Buy list, while Biotech stocks could be in focus ahead of their inclusion in the Stock Connect Buy and Sell list.

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Inclusions & Exclusions

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Sector</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">Last Week</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">Previous Week</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">3wks Ago</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">4wks Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consumer</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.20%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.55%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.32%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  2.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Energy</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.43%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.64%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.98%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Financials &amp; Real Estate</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.10%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.62%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.45%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.52%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Industrials</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.26%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.62%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.48%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Materials</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 3.08%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.57%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 2.66%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Utilities</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.99%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.25%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.06%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  2.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sector Average</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 0.87%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  0.18%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">+ 1.92%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-  1.41%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. <div class="content-highlight">There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. </div><div><div><h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3></div></div><div>
The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. 
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/832/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.17.17+PM.png?1613812651" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189832"></figure></section><hr>
</div><div><div><h3>Consumer Sector</h3></div></div><div>
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.
</div><div class="content-highlight">
Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.
</div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/833/original/Screenshot+2021-02-20+at+5.28.45+PM.png?1613813350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189833"></figure></section>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Four weeks ago, I gave the warning that H/A spreads had moved tighter - too far too fast. The next week, spreads widened, they bounced back with a vengeance, then slightly wider in the short week at the start of Chinese New Year, and bouncing back in the post-CNY week.In the two weeks from before to after Chinese New Year, the average sector spread moved about 70bp tighter, but the average spread moved only 42bp tighter.

Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
-  1.20%
+ 2.55%
+ 2.32%
-  2.62%


Energy
+ 1.43%
-  1.64%
+ 1.98%
-  0.59%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.10%
+ 0.29%
+ 0.62%
-  1.73%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 1.45%
-  1.52%
+ 2.29%
-  0.27%


Industrials
+ 0.26%
-  0.62%
+ 2.48%
-  1.30%


Materials
+ 3.08%
-  0.57%
+ 2.66%
-  0.95%


Utilities
+ 0.99%
+ 0.25%
+ 1.06%
-  2.45%


Sector Average
+ 0.87%
-  0.18%
+ 1.92%
-  1.41%

This week, the data is a bit cut short as the China Securities Depository and Clearing has not reported Southbound position data since the 10th as far as I can tell. There were 75 recommendations last week.  The 32 short recommendations lost an average of 48bp, slightly underperforming the market as a whole. The 43 long recommendations averaged gains of 50bp over the two weeks, outperforming the market as a whole. The combined total package was up 0.084% over the two weeks. The H/A Spread Market
The past two weeks straddling Chinese New Year saw mixed movement in H/A spreads, with 63 of 98 liquid spreads (64%) narrowing an average of 42bp. They are on average 92bp tighter over four weeks. 

Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 1.35% over the two weeks, but with some bumpiness. 
BYD (1211 HK) saw its spread move 3.1% wider over the two weeks and is now 7.1% wider over four weeks and it is no longer the narrowest liquid H/A spread in the sector, with Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) taking its place moving 2.4% in the two weeks and 10.7% in four.

Two weeks ago, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades gained an average of 1.67% in spread terms on the week.
For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

In recent years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> has launched a number of successful products, and the Company's investment value has significantly increased. Innovent leads the domestic counterparts in the layout of biological drugs and adhere to the development of internationally competitive products. The Company also establishes an excellent team to ensure the efficient implementation of the strategy. Meanwhile, Innovent is gradually transforming from a biotech company to a big pharma. With dozens of products in the pipeline, the Company is focusing on mainstream areas and is in the first echelon of clinical progress. In addition, with the rapid increase of sales after the listing of PD-1, its commercialization capability has also been recognized by the market.

In recent years, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) has launched a number of successful products, and the Company's investment value has significantly increased. Innovent leads the domestic counterparts in the layout of biological drugs and adhere to the development of internationally competitive products. The Company also establishes an excellent team to ensure the efficient implementation of the strategy. Meanwhile, Innovent is gradually transforming from a biotech company to a big pharma. With dozens of products in the pipeline, the Company is focusing on mainstream areas and is in the first echelon of clinical progress. In addition, with the rapid increase of sales after the listing of PD-1, its commercialization capability has also been recognized by the market. 

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - Have the Genes to Become a Big Pharma

Equity Capital Markets

Since China planned to pilot registration-based IPO system, more and more eligible unprofitable biotech companies are allowed to go public. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> would be the next one. The Company is going to list on the STAR market. Founded in Beijing in 2010, BeiGene is the most representative of the early biotech companies, and it has become a giant now, with a market value of about HK$254 billion on February 1, or less than half of that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) </a>(around RMB550 billion). Meanwhile, different from Hengrui’s strategy, which adheres more to the independent R&amp;D and control of core technology and related rights, BeiGene is better at capital operation - Most of the products in pipeline are from license-in mode, and the Company is continuously suffering from losses. So, would the IPO on the STAR market be the last hurrah?

Since China planned to pilot registration-based IPO system, more and more eligible unprofitable biotech companies are allowed to go public. BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) would be the next one. The Company is going to list on the STAR market. Founded in Beijing in 2010, BeiGene is the most representative of the early biotech companies, and it has become a giant now, with a market value of about HK$254 billion on February 1, or less than half of that of Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) (around RMB550 billion). Meanwhile, different from Hengrui’s strategy, which adheres more to the independent R&amp;D and control of core technology and related rights, BeiGene is better at capital operation - Most of the products in pipeline are from license-in mode, and the Company is continuously suffering from losses. So, would the IPO on the STAR market be the last hurrah?

Pre-IPO BeiGene - Would the IPO on the STAR Market Be the Last Hurrah?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1. Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>It is expected that the market size of IBD (Inflammatory Bowel Disease) drug therapy in China would keep growing in the next five years.</li>
<li>Since COVID-19 virus was detected in imported reagents this time, considering safety factors, the trend of import substitution for reagent varieties is expected to accelerate.</li>
<li>In the field of high-end antibiotics, Chinese enterprises have yet to make breakthroughs.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harbour-biomed-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29717:1" rel="noopener">Harbour Biomed (2142 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)</a>.3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 7.1%, while CSI 300 decreased 3.91% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:
It is expected that the market size of IBD (Inflammatory Bowel Disease) drug therapy in China would keep growing in the next five years.
Since COVID-19 virus was detected in imported reagents this time, considering safety factors, the trend of import substitution for reagent varieties is expected to accelerate.
In the field of high-end antibiotics, Chinese enterprises have yet to make breakthroughs.
2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs from BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), Harbour Biomed (2142 HK), Antengene (6996 HK) and Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 7.1%, while CSI 300 decreased 3.91% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Inclusions & Exclusions

There are 36 inclusions/ 29 exclusions for the Hang Seng Composite Index. 9 stocks will be deleted from the Stock Connect Buy list & there are a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Weekly H/A: High Volatility in Materials and Industrials and Spreads Over Lunar New Year

H/A spreads have been reasonably volatile over the CNY period, but again they net narrowed over two weeks. There are still several sectors where...

Travis Lundy

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) - Have the Genes to Become a Big Pharma

This article mainly analyzed Innovent in terms of its current listed products (Sintilimab, Bevacizumab, Adalimumab and Rituximab), its pipeline,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO BeiGene - Would the IPO on the STAR Market Be the Last Hurrah?

This article analyzed BeiGene in terms of its current pipeline, products on the market, competitive landscape, financial position, and the concerns...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.29)

The article analyzed industry viewpoints in terms of IBD drug therapy, import substitution for reagent varieties and high-end antibiotics market,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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