HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.</li>
<li>Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.</li>
<li>Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.</li>
</ul>


For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab (biosimilar) and VV116 (COVID)(RdRp) as unexciting; </li>
<li>Phase I/II drug Tifcemalimab (TAB004/JS004)(BTLA mAb) is interesting, but may not last to reach product sales;</li>
<li>We acknowledge the bad news has already been priced in and raise the TP to HK$21, but JUNSHI still has unfavourable risk reward profile in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab (biosimilar) and VV116 (COVID)(RdRp) as unexciting; 
Phase I/II drug Tifcemalimab (TAB004/JS004)(BTLA mAb) is interesting, but may not last to reach product sales;
We acknowledge the bad news has already been priced in and raise the TP to HK$21, but JUNSHI still has unfavourable risk reward profile in our opinion.


[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. </li>
<li>
<strong>Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.</strong> 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. </li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. 

Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts. 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest characteristic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.</li>
<li>If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. </li>
<li>Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. </li>
</ul>


The biggest characteristic of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.
If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. 
Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> signed a contract manufacturing agreement worth KRW1.7T ($1.2B) with an Asian pharmaceutical company. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> has announced KRW100B ($72M) share buyback, starting October 28.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> received FDA approval for Vyloy for gastric cancer. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received FDA Fast Track designation for its RSV drug candidate, S-337395.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd-94df40cf-c15e-462f-b3de-8d2d434ae935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36261:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab (9688 HK)</a> announced positive topline data from global Phase 1a/1b study of ZL-1310 in small cell lung cancer. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)</a> sheds Genscript Biotech as its majority shareholder.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) signed a contract manufacturing agreement worth KRW1.7T ($1.2B) with an Asian pharmaceutical company. Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) has announced KRW100B ($72M) share buyback, starting October 28.

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) received FDA approval for Vyloy for gastric cancer. Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received FDA Fast Track designation for its RSV drug candidate, S-337395.

Zai Lab (9688 HK) announced positive topline data from global Phase 1a/1b study of ZL-1310 in small cell lung cancer. Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) sheds Genscript Biotech as its majority shareholder.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 27)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Astellas, Otsuka, Legend, and Zai Lab

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

A/H Premiums reached their highest average (arithmetic - not the HS Index) in a year on Monday. And then turned. Overseas liquidation feels...

Travis Lundy

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 27)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Astellas, Otsuka, Legend, and Zai Lab

Samsung Biologics secures largest ever contract, Celltrion announced KRW100B buyback, Astellas Pharma got label expansion approval for Vyloy,...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

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China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

​Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

A/H Premiums reached their highest average (arithmetic - not the HS Index) in a year on Monday. And then turned. Overseas liquidation feels...

Travis Lundy

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 27)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Astellas, Otsuka, Legend, and Zai Lab

Samsung Biologics secures largest ever contract, Celltrion announced KRW100B buyback, Astellas Pharma got label expansion approval for Vyloy,...

Tina Banerjee

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...