HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.</li>
<li>Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.</li>
<li>Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.</li>
</ul>


For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab (biosimilar) and VV116 (COVID)(RdRp) as unexciting; </li>
<li>Phase I/II drug Tifcemalimab (TAB004/JS004)(BTLA mAb) is interesting, but may not last to reach product sales;</li>
<li>We acknowledge the bad news has already been priced in and raise the TP to HK$21, but JUNSHI still has unfavourable risk reward profile in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab (biosimilar) and VV116 (COVID)(RdRp) as unexciting; 
Phase I/II drug Tifcemalimab (TAB004/JS004)(BTLA mAb) is interesting, but may not last to reach product sales;
We acknowledge the bad news has already been priced in and raise the TP to HK$21, but JUNSHI still has unfavourable risk reward profile in our opinion.


[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. </li>
<li>
<strong>Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.</strong> 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. </li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. 

Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts. 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

<ul>
<li>IPO rules in SSE STAR Market faces adjustments, so investors have lowered expectations, which will affect the fundraising ecology. Recovery of China’s financing environment would be slower than US/Europe.</li>
<li>The CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty, IPO, and reduction of shares held by listed companies, which would significantly affect the capitalization path of pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>Junshi is “an interesting Biotech” that once generated sales/profits in scale, but is losing money again.Since Junshi is outside the first echelon and the gap is widening, we remain conservative. </li>
</ul>


IPO rules in SSE STAR Market faces adjustments, so investors have lowered expectations, which will affect the fundraising ecology. Recovery of China’s financing environment would be slower than US/Europe.
The CSRC has issued new policies related to stamp duty, IPO, and reduction of shares held by listed companies, which would significantly affect the capitalization path of pharmaceutical companies.
Junshi is “an interesting Biotech” that once generated sales/profits in scale, but is losing money again.Since Junshi is outside the first echelon and the gap is widening, we remain conservative. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) - China's New IPO Reform, Financing Environment, Junshi Biosciences

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest characteristic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.</li>
<li>If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. </li>
<li>Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. </li>
</ul>


The biggest characteristic of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.
If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. 
Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

China

Yantai Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is an enterprise group that combines pharmaceutical R&D, production, marketing, and capital operations across the fields of biochemical API, chemical synthetic drugs, and modern Chinese medicine.

Yantai Dongcheng Pharmaceuticl Gp (002675 CH)

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

Chengzhi Company Limited manufactures and sells household chemical products, biotechnology products, pharmaceuticals, and information technology products. The Company's products include detergents, toothpastes, D-ribose, L-glutamine, Chinese traditional medicines, computer memory devices, and other related products.

Beijing Strong Biotechnologies, Inc. operates in the IVD industry, where they specialize in the manufacturing of clinical chemistry liquid reagents.

BGI Genomics Co., Ltd offers researching and testing services. The Company provides deoxyribonucleic acid sequencing, food science, health care researching, cancer prevention, drug discovery, and DNA sequencing. BGI Genomics offers services to medical and scientific research institutions worldwide.

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Company Limited manufactures absorbable biomedical materials. The Company targets therapeutic areas such as orthopedics, anti-adhesion and hemostasis, ophthalmology, and wound care and tissue filling.

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology (6826 HK)

Zhongyuan Union Cell & Gene Engineering Corp Ltd, mainly operates in the stem cell inspection and storage business and other stem cell related business.

Zhongyuan Union Cell & Gene Eng Corp (600645 CH)

Beijing SL Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets genetic engineering drugs, biological drugs, chemical drugs and medicine preparations.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. designs, optimizes and develops small-molecule novel pharmaceuticals that block key enzymes involved in infectious diseases, inflammatory diseases & cancer.  The Company has late-stage compounds in development & continues to discover additional compounds & to progress them  to meet the unmet medical needs of patients and physicians.

Dynavax Technologies Corporation discovers, develops, and is seeking to commercialize products based on immunostimulatory sequences.  The Company is developing products to treat and prevent allergies, infectious diseases, and chronic inflammatory diseases using approaches that alter immune system responses in specific ways.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated develops drugs which regulate hormone activated intracellular receptors.  These receptors play a role in regulating the genetic processes affecting diseases such as gynecological disorders, certain cancers, as well as cardiovascular, inflammatory, and skin diseases.

Galapagos NV operates as a clinical stage biotech company. The Company develops and commercializes novel medicines and progressing pipelines in biotech with phase 2 programs, phase 1 programs, pre-clinical, and discovery programs.

Biotest AG is a provider of plasma proteins and biological drugs. The Company has specialized primarily in the areas of clinical immunology, haematology and intensive medicine with a focus on treating diseases of the immune and haematopoietic systems. Biotest AG has production operations mainly in Europe and the US, and sells its products worldwide.

Genus plc provides cattle breeding and agricultural consultancy services.  The Group, through its own domestic production and contracts with breeding companies worldwide, supplies dairy and beef semen used for artificial insemination.  They also provide laboratory services, including soil analysis and pregnancy testing, in addition to a variety of farm consultancy and advisory services.

Hugel, Inc. is a Bio-pharmaceutical company that focuses on developing beauty/cosmetics related products.  The Company's main products include botulinum toxin and fillers.

Kura Oncology, Inc. operates as a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery and development of personalized therapeutics for the treatment of tumors and blood cancers. Kura Oncology offers development programs for cancers with high unmet need, including lung, colorectal, thyroid, blood, and pancreatic cancers.

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovering, acquiring, developing, and commercializing therapeutic medicines for patients suffering from debilitating diseases with significant unmet medical need. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals serves patients worldwide.

Galapagos NV is a clinical-stage biotechnology company specialized in the discovery and development of small molecule medicines with novel modes of action, with a pipeline comprising Phase 3, 2, 1, pre-clinical and discovery studies in cystic fibrosis, inflammation, fibrosis, osteoarthritis, and other indications.

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

A/H Premiums reached their highest average (arithmetic - not the HS Index) in a year on Monday. And then turned. Overseas liquidation feels...

Travis Lundy

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) - China's New IPO Reform, Financing Environment, Junshi Biosciences

CSRC issued new policies related to IPO reform in China.As IPO rules in A-share face adjustments, fundraising ecology will change.Junshi is far...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

​Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

A/H Premiums reached their highest average (arithmetic - not the HS Index) in a year on Monday. And then turned. Overseas liquidation feels...

Travis Lundy

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1) - China's New IPO Reform, Financing Environment, Junshi Biosciences

CSRC issued new policies related to IPO reform in China.As IPO rules in A-share face adjustments, fundraising ecology will change.Junshi is far...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...