HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The NRDL negotiation has completely changed the pricing method and valuation logic of innovative drugs. Based on the 3D Alphamab Simcere Agreements, 3D Medicines would have limited profits from envafolimab.</li>
<li>The majority candidates are based on license-in model. The intention to “pile up” a nice pipeline based on license-in model before IPO is obvious. 3D Medicines’s R&amp;D capability is questionable.</li>
<li>The overall quality and core competitiveness of 3D Medicines are not high. Mr. Market is not friendly to the valuation of companies based on license-in model. </li>
</ul>


The NRDL negotiation has completely changed the pricing method and valuation logic of innovative drugs. Based on the 3D Alphamab Simcere Agreements, 3D Medicines would have limited profits from envafolimab.
The majority candidates are based on license-in model. The intention to “pile up” a nice pipeline based on license-in model before IPO is obvious. 3D Medicines’s R&amp;D capability is questionable.
The overall quality and core competitiveness of 3D Medicines are not high. Mr. Market is not friendly to the valuation of companies based on license-in model. 


Pre-IPO 3D Medicines (3DM HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention; Our Thoughts on Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NRDL negotiation has completely changed the pricing method/valuation logic of innovative drugs. Even if price reduction could be milder this year, it’s hard to reverse the shrinking market size/slowing growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> has successively acquired several factories/production facilities built by domestic biotech companies at low cost. However, we have several concerns.</li>
<li>The industry is in the process of understanding and adapting to various changes. The model capital envisioned for biotech to both develop and then commercialize drugs successfully doesn’t work anymore.</li>
</ul>


NRDL negotiation has completely changed the pricing method/valuation logic of innovative drugs. Even if price reduction could be milder this year, it’s hard to reverse the shrinking market size/slowing growth.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has successively acquired several factories/production facilities built by domestic biotech companies at low cost. However, we have several concerns.
The industry is in the process of understanding and adapting to various changes. The model capital envisioned for biotech to both develop and then commercialize drugs successfully doesn’t work anymore.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov25)-Wuxi Biologics, Valuation Logic Changed by NRDL, Biotech Model Fails

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> has been removed from the "Unverified List", but the crisis is not over. CXO's valuation center could gradually volatile to the downside,during which there would be temporary rebounds.</li>
<li>Biotechnology of US and China has entered a higher level of game. As domestic CXO is deeply embedded in global supply chain, we won't take any chances on WuXi Biologics.</li>
<li>We may face a long high-interest-rate environment after the Fed hikes,but the booming of US pharmaceutical IPOs is the underlying logic of CXO. We provided suggestions on CXO trading strategy.</li>
</ul>



Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has been removed from the "Unverified List", but the crisis is not over. CXO's valuation center could gradually volatile to the downside,during which there would be temporary rebounds.
Biotechnology of US and China has entered a higher level of game. As domestic CXO is deeply embedded in global supply chain, we won't take any chances on WuXi Biologics.
We may face a long high-interest-rate environment after the Fed hikes,but the booming of US pharmaceutical IPOs is the underlying logic of CXO. We provided suggestions on CXO trading strategy.


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) - Removed from UVL, but the Crisis Is Not Over

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>“Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Online Drug Sales” was released, which indicated that the online sale of prescription drugs is allowed, but there are certain restrictions and requirements.</li>
<li>The rise of China biotech is based on the historical opportunities of both alpha (individual efforts) and beta (industry development) superposition. It’s unique. Investors shouldn’t expect to “copy” similar paths.</li>
<li>We have noted that some biotech/biopharma have or are considering changing excess capacity to do CDMO. This is caused by too much “bubble” in the market, which is not logical.</li>
</ul>


“Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Online Drug Sales” was released, which indicated that the online sale of prescription drugs is allowed, but there are certain restrictions and requirements.
The rise of China biotech is based on the historical opportunities of both alpha (individual efforts) and beta (industry development) superposition. It’s unique. Investors shouldn’t expect to “copy” similar paths.
We have noted that some biotech/biopharma have or are considering changing excess capacity to do CDMO. This is caused by too much “bubble” in the market, which is not logical.


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep2)-Online Drug Sale, Biotech's Historical Opportunity, Biotech to Be CDMO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaron-beijing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28428:1" rel="noopener"></a>Pharmaron’s share price plunged after the release of the estimate for 2022 interim results, even dragging down the entire CXO sector, which reflected the attitude of Mr Market.</li>
<li>One important reason for low net profit growth is related to the development strategy - Even if Pharmaron achieves  “integration”, its advantage/profit margin could largely shrink due to overcapacity/fierce competition.  </li>
<li>Pharmaron can only achieve V-shaped rebound by making breakthroughs in CGT CXO to boost valuations and expectations on outlook rather than pursue the strategy of “integration” as in the past.</li>
</ul>



Pharmaron’s share price plunged after the release of the estimate for 2022 interim results, even dragging down the entire CXO sector, which reflected the attitude of Mr Market.
One important reason for low net profit growth is related to the development strategy - Even if Pharmaron achieves  “integration”, its advantage/profit margin could largely shrink due to overcapacity/fierce competition.  
Pharmaron can only achieve V-shaped rebound by making breakthroughs in CGT CXO to boost valuations and expectations on outlook rather than pursue the strategy of “integration” as in the past.


Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) - The Story May Have Changed

China

Yantai Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is an enterprise group that combines pharmaceutical R&D, production, marketing, and capital operations across the fields of biochemical API, chemical synthetic drugs, and modern Chinese medicine.

Yantai Dongcheng Pharmaceuticl Gp (002675 CH)

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

Chengzhi Company Limited manufactures and sells household chemical products, biotechnology products, pharmaceuticals, and information technology products. The Company's products include detergents, toothpastes, D-ribose, L-glutamine, Chinese traditional medicines, computer memory devices, and other related products.

Beijing Strong Biotechnologies, Inc. operates in the IVD industry, where they specialize in the manufacturing of clinical chemistry liquid reagents.

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

BGI Genomics Co., Ltd offers researching and testing services. The Company provides deoxyribonucleic acid sequencing, food science, health care researching, cancer prevention, drug discovery, and DNA sequencing. BGI Genomics offers services to medical and scientific research institutions worldwide.

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Company Limited manufactures absorbable biomedical materials. The Company targets therapeutic areas such as orthopedics, anti-adhesion and hemostasis, ophthalmology, and wound care and tissue filling.

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology (6826 HK)

Zhongyuan Union Cell & Gene Engineering Corp Ltd, mainly operates in the stem cell inspection and storage business and other stem cell related business.

Zhongyuan Union Cell & Gene Eng Corp (600645 CH)

Beijing SL Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets genetic engineering drugs, biological drugs, chemical drugs and medicine preparations.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. designs, optimizes and develops small-molecule novel pharmaceuticals that block key enzymes involved in infectious diseases, inflammatory diseases & cancer.  The Company has late-stage compounds in development & continues to discover additional compounds & to progress them  to meet the unmet medical needs of patients and physicians.

Dynavax Technologies Corporation discovers, develops, and is seeking to commercialize products based on immunostimulatory sequences.  The Company is developing products to treat and prevent allergies, infectious diseases, and chronic inflammatory diseases using approaches that alter immune system responses in specific ways.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated develops drugs which regulate hormone activated intracellular receptors.  These receptors play a role in regulating the genetic processes affecting diseases such as gynecological disorders, certain cancers, as well as cardiovascular, inflammatory, and skin diseases.

Ardelyx, Inc. develops minimally absorbed small molecule drugs. The Company offers pharmaceuticals to correct mineral metabolism imbalance and metabolic disorders by modulating the function of specific transporters, channels, and receptors located on the epithelia of the gastrointestinal tract.

Galapagos NV operates as a clinical stage biotech company. The Company develops and commercializes novel medicines and progressing pipelines in biotech with phase 2 programs, phase 1 programs, pre-clinical, and discovery programs.

Biotest AG is a provider of plasma proteins and biological drugs. The Company has specialized primarily in the areas of clinical immunology, haematology and intensive medicine with a focus on treating diseases of the immune and haematopoietic systems. Biotest AG has production operations mainly in Europe and the US, and sells its products worldwide.

Genus plc provides cattle breeding and agricultural consultancy services.  The Group, through its own domestic production and contracts with breeding companies worldwide, supplies dairy and beef semen used for artificial insemination.  They also provide laboratory services, including soil analysis and pregnancy testing, in addition to a variety of farm consultancy and advisory services.

Hugel, Inc. is a Bio-pharmaceutical company that focuses on developing beauty/cosmetics related products.  The Company's main products include botulinum toxin and fillers.

Kura Oncology, Inc. operates as a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery and development of personalized therapeutics for the treatment of tumors and blood cancers. Kura Oncology offers development programs for cancers with high unmet need, including lung, colorectal, thyroid, blood, and pancreatic cancers.

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovering, acquiring, developing, and commercializing therapeutic medicines for patients suffering from debilitating diseases with significant unmet medical need. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals serves patients worldwide.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

Pre-IPO 3D Medicines (3DM HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention; Our Thoughts on Valuation

The overall quality/core competitiveness of 3D Medicines isn't high. Its pipeline is mainly based on license-in model, which is not favored by Mr....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov25)-Wuxi Biologics, Valuation Logic Changed by NRDL, Biotech Model Fails

NRDL negotiation completely changes the valuation logic of innovative drug. We've some concerns about WuXi Bio's new business updates. The model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) - Removed from UVL, but the Crisis Is Not Over

Removal from UVL won’t bring fundamental change.The logic of CXO(low labor cost+booming US pharmaceutical IPO) is untenable.We provide trading...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep2)-Online Drug Sale, Biotech's Historical Opportunity, Biotech to Be CDMO

New policy of online drug sales is released,including certain restrictions.The rise of China biotech is based on historical opportunity of alpha...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) - The Story May Have Changed

Due to overcapacity/fierce competition,Pharmaron is hard to achieve V-shaped rebound by the strategy of "integration".We are conservative about its...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)