HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.</li>
<li>After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.</li>
<li>Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.
After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.
Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. </li>
<li>In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.</li>
<li>Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.</li>
</ul>


LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. 
In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

<ul>
<li>LVC increased its holding of Henlius by 1,110,900 shares on January 23, reflecting its high recognition of the Company and optimism on its prospects, despite the biosimilar VBP headwinds.</li>
<li>Even with concerns, LVC still repeatedly invested in Henlius at a valuation far higher than its actual value, offering support with real money during pre-IPO stage.</li>
<li>Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was a deliberate decision. We are interested to see Lin's next move. Lin should have a very clear understanding of the true value of Henlius.</li>
</ul>


LVC increased its holding of Henlius by 1,110,900 shares on January 23, reflecting its high recognition of the Company and optimism on its prospects, despite the biosimilar VBP headwinds.
Even with concerns, LVC still repeatedly invested in Henlius at a valuation far higher than its actual value, offering support with real money during pre-IPO stage.
Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was a deliberate decision. We are interested to see Lin's next move. Lin should have a very clear understanding of the true value of Henlius.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - LVC Increased Its Holding of Henlius Again

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You might have to go all the back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.</li>
<li>Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>
</li>
<li>IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.</li>
</ul>


You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
Otherwise, it's slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)

IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don't understand why they would want to block.


Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

<ul>
<li>There have been quite a few M&amp;As in the field of TCM, with a clear trend of SOEs taking over TCM enterprises due to strategically significant and advantageous integration.</li>
<li>Whether a drug can be approved does not depend on whether it has entered Phase II/III trials. The areas with clearly unmet medical needs often indicate good investment opportunities.</li>
<li>The privatization of Henlius failed. Lin Lijun's dissenting vote was based on a deliberate decision. We are optimistic about the outlook of Henlius due to its strong fundamentals and internationalization. </li>
</ul>


There have been quite a few M&amp;As in the field of TCM, with a clear trend of SOEs taking over TCM enterprises due to strategically significant and advantageous integration.
Whether a drug can be approved does not depend on whether it has entered Phase II/III trials. The areas with clearly unmet medical needs often indicate good investment opportunities.
The privatization of Henlius failed. Lin Lijun's dissenting vote was based on a deliberate decision. We are optimistic about the outlook of Henlius due to its strong fundamentals and internationalization. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.26) - Key Takeaways from the Failure of Henlius Privatization, TCM M&As

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc develops and produces drugs. The Company develops and produces monoclonal antibody biosimilar drugs, bio betters, novel monoclonal antibodys, and other drugs. Shanghai Henlius Biotech throughout China.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang