HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Cancellation Price of HK$24.60 per share is about 50% lower than the IPO price of HK$49.6 per share in 2019. So, those long-term investors would suffer big losses.</li>
<li>Henlius' share price has outperformed the index. If it remains listed, it’s able to continue to grow and provide long-term returns for shareholders. Reasonable Cancellation Price should be above HK$30/share.</li>
<li>As usual, Fosun doesn't consider the interests of long-term investors and shareholders. There would be some investors/shareholders vote against the privatization, but the returns for arbitrageurs is not bad.</li>
</ul>


The Cancellation Price of HK$24.60 per share is about 50% lower than the IPO price of HK$49.6 per share in 2019. So, those long-term investors would suffer big losses.
Henlius' share price has outperformed the index. If it remains listed, it’s able to continue to grow and provide long-term returns for shareholders. Reasonable Cancellation Price should be above HK$30/share.
As usual, Fosun doesn't consider the interests of long-term investors and shareholders. There would be some investors/shareholders vote against the privatization, but the returns for arbitrageurs is not bad.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech Privatization (2696.HK) - The Offer Price Is Disappointing

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK)</a> has made a<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0624/2024062401217.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> HK$24.60/share Offer</a> (best &amp; final), in cash, for H-shares not held in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>. A scrip alternative may be afforded. </li>
<li>As Henlius is PRC-incorporated, this Offer is structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There is no tendering condition.
</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions include NDRC, MoC, and SAFE. The Long Stop date to secure these conditions is 30th April 2025. That's way too conservative. This should be wrapped up around mid 4Q24.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) has made a HK$24.60/share Offer (best &amp; final), in cash, for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK). A scrip alternative may be afforded. 
As Henlius is PRC-incorporated, this Offer is structured as a Merger by Absorption, involving a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. There is no tendering condition.

Pre-Conditions include NDRC, MoC, and SAFE. The Long Stop date to secure these conditions is 30th April 2025. That's way too conservative. This should be wrapped up around mid 4Q24.


Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma's "Fair" Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a> at HK$24.60, a 36.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>Long term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be supportive partly because of the share alternative option.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) at HK$24.60, a 36.7% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
Long term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be supportive partly because of the share alternative option.


Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;</li>
<li>Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; </li>
<li>However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;
Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; 
However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

<ul>
<li>There are many rumors about Henlius’s trading halt, but Fosun Pharma had applied for the resumption of trading in H Shares, which makes us confused whether this is really privatization.</li>
<li>Henlius is in “an awkward position” in capital market. Fosun is to blame for Henlius's low valuation. The high debt problem makes the profits generated from drug sales meaningless.</li>
<li>If Henlius cannot break away from the system controlled by Fosun, the complexity of corporate governance brought about by the relationship between Henlius and Fosun would inevitably affect investment judgment.</li>
</ul>


There are many rumors about Henlius’s trading halt, but Fosun Pharma had applied for the resumption of trading in H Shares, which makes us confused whether this is really privatization.
Henlius is in “an awkward position” in capital market. Fosun is to blame for Henlius's low valuation. The high debt problem makes the profits generated from drug sales meaningless.
If Henlius cannot break away from the system controlled by Fosun, the complexity of corporate governance brought about by the relationship between Henlius and Fosun would inevitably affect investment judgment.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor

China

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells Chinese patent medicine. The Company also wholesales, retails, imports, and exports Western and Chinese pharmaceutical products and various medical apparatus.

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings (874 HK)

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings

Changchun High & New Technology Industry (Group) Inc. is an investment holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures biopharmaceuticals and Chinese traditional medicines, constructs infrastructure facilities, manufactures electrolytic condensers, and develops and manages real estate.

Xizang Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells drug formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Company's main products include hepatobiliary disease medication, anti-infective drugs, parenteral nutrition drugs, invert sugar for injection, and other related products.

Xizang Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co (002653 CH)

Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes pharmaceutical and healthcare products such as tablets, capsules, injection formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals A (002294 CH)

Dong-E-E-Jiao Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and sells traditional Chinese medicine, health care products, health foods, and bio-medicine. The company also engages in gelatin products manufacturing.

Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. develops, produces, and sells medicines that are used for the treatment of high blood pressure and cold.  The Company also pr oduces antibiotic drugs and health care products. Kangmei also sells other manufacturers' medical products through its wholesale and retail chain.

Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (600518 CH)

Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co., Ltd specializes in the R&D and sales of pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and chemical products, in addition to the import and export of goods and technology. The company, through its subsidiaries, also operate in real estate development and sales, industrial investment and management, and education projects.

Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited produces and sells traditional Chinese medicine, western medicine, health products, and healthcare instruments.  The Group also manufactures gene-related biopharmaceutical products.  Tianjin Zhongxin markets its products under the Great Wall, Cypress, and Health brand names.

Tianjin Zhongxin Phrmctl Gp Cp (600329 CH)

Shijiangzhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co Ltd develops, produces and sells Chinese patent medicine. The Company's major products include Tongxinluo capsules, Shensongyangxin capsules, Lotus Qingwen capsules, Qili Qiangxin capsules and Bazi Bushen capsules.

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603 CH)

Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and retails pharmaceutical products and medical raw materials. The Company exports its products to many parts of the world.

Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd. (600521 CH)

Perrigo Company PLC is a global healthcare supplier that develops, manufactures, and distributes OTC and generic prescription pharmaceuticals, infant formulas, nutritional products, active pharmaceutical ingredients and pharmaceutical and medical diagnostic products. The Company's primary markets and locations of manufacturing and logistics operations are the US, UK, Mexico, and Australia.

ROHTO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals and cosmetics products.  The Company's products include eyewash, bath soaps, gastrointestinal medicine, and hand cream.  Rohto Pharmaceutical also has a license agreement with its subsidiary, Mentholatum (US) to sell their brand products.  The Company also manufactures contact lenses and health foods.

PT Kalbe Farma Tbk produces and develops pharmaceutical products for human and animal healthcare.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the pharmaceutical, health food, and packaging industries.

Corcept Therapeutics Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that discovers and develops drugs for the treatment of severe metabolic and psychiatric disorders. The Company's lead product modulates the effect of cortisol, also known as the "stress hormone", by selectively blocking the binding of cortisol to one of its two known receptors, the GR-II receptor.

SANTEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. produces and sells ophthalmic medicine.  The Company manufactures a variety of products including eye drops and ointments. Santen Pharmaceutical also imports lenses and tools and equipment used by optometrists and produces anti-rheumatic drugs.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. manufactures and distributes a wide variety of pharmaceutical drugs, veterinary products and laboratory chemicals. The Company's products include "Phexin" capsules, "Betnesol" tablets and injections, "Becoride" asthma treatment, "Betnovate" ointment, "Cetzine" antihistamine, "Zucox" and "Rizap" anti-tuberculosis products.

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals (GLXO IN)

Ajanta Pharma Limited is a pharmaceutical company involved in the areas of product research, manufacturing, and marketing. The Company's manufacturing capabilities include segments such as antiretrovirals, antimalarials, cardiovascular, dermatology, and ophthalmology. The Company also markets over the counter products that include some nature-based remedies.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops generic drugs for inflammation, metabolic disorders, and pain.

Yuhan Corporation manufactures and markets various pharmaceutical products on its own and through joint ventures with other global pharmaceutical companies. The Company also produces personal care products, dietary supplements, and veterinary medicines.

Prestige Brands Holdings, Inc. distributes over-the-counter healthcare and household cleaning products to retail stores in the United States, Canada and other international markets.  The Company distributes oral, eye and skin care; cough, cold, allergy and sinus; and household cleansers, sponges, scrubbers and cleaning pads.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. is a pharmaceutical company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures genetic medicines, Chinese traditional medicines, diagnostic products, and medical instruments, provides technology, marketing, and advertising services, as well as invests in import and export trading.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

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Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Privatization (2696.HK) - The Offer Price Is Disappointing

The Cancellation Price is 50% lower than Henlius's IPO price, causing losses for long-term players. Remaining public will provide good returns....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma's "Fair" Offer

I'd be buying Henlius up to around $23.30 or a gross/annualised spread of 5%/15%, assuming early mid-November completion.

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

Long-term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be...

Arun George

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor

Rumors swirl around Henlius's trading halt, raising questions about privatization.Henlius faces challenge in the market due to high debt, with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shanghai Henlius Biotech Privatization (2696.HK) - The Offer Price Is Disappointing

The ​Cancellation Price is 50% lower than Henlius's IPO price, causing losses for long-term players. Remaining public will provide good returns....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius Biotech (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma's "Fair" Offer

I'd be buying Henlius up to around $23.30 or a gross/annualised spread of 5%/15%, assuming early mid-November completion.

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 Offer at Around Half the IPO Price

Long-term investors will be unimpressed as the offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. However, shareholders with blocking stakes should be...

Arun George

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Behind the Trading Halt and Privatization Rumor

​Rumors swirl around Henlius's trading halt, raising questions about privatization.Henlius faces challenge in the market due to high debt, with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Cancellation Price is 50% lower than Henlius's IPO price, causing losses for long-term players. Remaining public will provide good returns....

Rumors swirl around Henlius's trading halt, raising questions about privatization.Henlius faces challenge in the market due to high debt, with...