HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ORG purchased 27% of CPMC's shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel's Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.</li>
<li>Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time - There may have been some "tacit agreement" between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.</li>
<li>For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.</li>
</ul>


ORG purchased 27% of CPMC's shares at HK$6/share in 2015.After about eight years, Baosteel's Offer Price was only HK$6.87/share. The annualized return rate was low, which obviously cannot satisfy ORG.
Baosteel and CPMC have been in talks for a long time - There may have been some "tacit agreement" between the two parties. The approval process is smooth so far.
For acquisitions/consolidation between SOEs, private enterprises usually have limited chances of winning.ORG has financial pressure and the approval process face uncertainties. There would be more negotiations among CPMC, ORG, Baosteel.


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization - Some New Information Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Baosteel’s SOE background helps bring more advantages- This deal is a consolidation of assets under SASAC, which may involve some strategic intent at national level. Baosteel has an upper hand. </li>
<li>ORG cannot afford to fail considering the strategic significance of CMPC for ORG. Major shareholder of CPMC Zhang Wei has picked ORG side, making it maintain the hope of winning.</li>
<li>For arbitrageurs, the good news is CPMC would be acquired by either Changping Industrial or ORG, with high certainty.Baosteel is also worth watching since it could be a new leader. </li>
</ul>


Baosteel’s SOE background helps bring more advantages- This deal is a consolidation of assets under SASAC, which may involve some strategic intent at national level. Baosteel has an upper hand. 
ORG cannot afford to fail considering the strategic significance of CMPC for ORG. Major shareholder of CPMC Zhang Wei has picked ORG side, making it maintain the hope of winning.
For arbitrageurs, the good news is CPMC would be acquired by either Changping Industrial or ORG, with high certainty.Baosteel is also worth watching since it could be a new leader. 


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) - ORG Can't Afford to Lose, But Baosteel Is a Step Ahead

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With ORG offering a 4.9% higher price and securing Zhang Wei's acceptance, the ball is now back in Baowu's hands. Good reasons exist for Baowu to raise its offer price. </li>
<li>Baowu's subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-baosteel-packaging-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25102:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)</a> needs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> more than ORG, given its smaller market share and weaker profitability.</li>
<li>At ORG's offer price, CPMC's PERs for FY24 and FY25 of 15.4x and 14.2x are cheaper than Baosteel Packaging's 22x and 18.7x. This gives additional justifications for a higher offer. </li>
</ul>


With ORG offering a 4.9% higher price and securing Zhang Wei's acceptance, the ball is now back in Baowu's hands. Good reasons exist for Baowu to raise its offer price. 
Baowu's subsidiary Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH) needs CPMC Holdings (906 HK) more than ORG, given its smaller market share and weaker profitability.
At ORG's offer price, CPMC's PERs for FY24 and FY25 of 15.4x and 14.2x are cheaper than Baosteel Packaging's 22x and 18.7x. This gives additional justifications for a higher offer. 


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Will Baowu Raise the Offer Price After ORG?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> has a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Changping Industrial at HK$6.87 and potentially a competing offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>Five months after announcing its offer, Changping Industrial obtained regulatory approvals from all except SAMR, SAFE, and the Vietnam Competition Commission. </li>
<li>An ORG offer seems unlikely due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional before the ORG obtains regulatory approvals.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Changping Industrial at HK$6.87 and potentially a competing offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH). 
Five months after announcing its offer, Changping Industrial obtained regulatory approvals from all except SAMR, SAFE, and the Vietnam Competition Commission. 
An ORG offer seems unlikely due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional before the ORG obtains regulatory approvals.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

<ul>
<li>We are convinced that both bids for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> will go ahead, as they are progressing well. The downside risk is minimal, in our view.</li>
<li>The strong underlying result justifies a high price for the stock. Excluding distortions from non-recurring items in FY22, earnings have increased by 32.7% in FY23 and 26.8% in 2H23.</li>
<li>The stock now trades on 13.8x and 12.8x PERs for FY24 and FY25, in line with sector average; but below that for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-baosteel-packaging-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25102:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We are convinced that both bids for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) will go ahead, as they are progressing well. The downside risk is minimal, in our view.
The strong underlying result justifies a high price for the stock. Excluding distortions from non-recurring items in FY22, earnings have increased by 32.7% in FY23 and 26.8% in 2H23.
The stock now trades on 13.8x and 12.8x PERs for FY24 and FY25, in line with sector average; but below that for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH). 


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

China

Shantou Dongfeng Printing Company Limited designs, manufactures and sells cigarette packet printings and related packaging materials. The Company's main products include cigarette packets used in cigarette brand packaging.

Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Company Limited develops, produces and sells plastic packaging materials. The Company's main product are polyester film, aluminized, PVC film, etc.

Jiangsu Shgxg Clr Plstc New Mtrls (002585 CH)

Shenzhen Jinjia Color Printing Group Co., Ltd. mainly designs trademarks, prints and manufactures standard cigarette boxes for cigarette companies. The Company is also engaged in printing other packaging materials.

Shenzhen Jinjia Color Printing Gp (002191 CH)

Huangshan Novel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets color printed composite packaging products and vacuum aluminum coated products.

Sunrise Group Company Limited is a metal containers manufacturer. The Company produces cans and other metal packaging products.

MYS Group Co., Ltd. manufactures cardboard and plastic packaging.

Zhejiang Great Southeast Company Ltd. manufactures a wide range of plastic packaging products. The Company produces plastic film, plastic bags, and other plastic packaging.

Zhejiang Jingxing Paper JSC Ltd manufactures and markets paper products including kraft box paper for packaging, corrugated paper, paperboard, and paper boxes.

Anhui Guofeng Plastic Industry Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures plastic products.  The Company's products include biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) and polyethylene (PE) films, plastic building materials, injection molds, and other plastic products.  Anhui Guofeng also produces evaporimeters.

Shenzhen Beauty Star Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes plastic containers and plastic products. It also vacuum coats plastic products and content fills plastic tubes for cosmetics.

PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk manufactures industrial paper such as container boards, boxboard, and coated paper for use in the packaging of consumer and industrial goods. The Company's products are sold locally and also exported to other Asian countries, Australia, and the Middle East.

Youlchon Chemical Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures packaging materials such as single and multilayer oriented polypropylene films and corrugated cardboards for use in consumer product labeling and packaging applications.  The Company also produces laminated tubes to pack toothpaste, cosmetics, and adhesives.  In addition, Youlchon manufactures carrier tapes which carry electronic parts.

Jai Corporation Ltd. manufactures galvanized plain and corrugated steel sheets; and polypropylene and polyethylene fabrics and sacks.

HSIL Limited manufactures sanitary ware, and glassware products. The Company products include bathroom fittings, bath tubs, shower partitions, shower enclosures, shower partitions & panels, kitchen appliances and sinks, ceramic tiles, home interior, glass containers, textiles, and engineering goods.

Cascades Inc. produces paper and packaging products.  The Company manufactures, converts, and markets specialty products, including boxboard, fine papers, tissue paper, and containerboard.  Cascades and its subsidiaries operate in Canada, the United States, France, Sweden, Germany, and Great Britain.

Essel Propack Ltd. manufactures fully collapsible (soft squeeze) laminated tubes, flexible packaging and laminated paper. The Company's products are sold to pharmaceutical, consumer products and food packaging companies. Essel Propack's 100% owned subsidiary, Essel Overseas Ltd., is mainly engaged in export business.

FUJI SEAL INTERNATIONAL, INC. manufactures various packaging-related materials and machinery.  The Company's products include cap seals and labels and plastic containers.  Fuji Seal International also develops shrink wrap seals and tack labels.  The Company has production bases in the United States, England, Netherlands, and Thailand.

Myers Industries, Inc. manufactures plastic and rubber products for industrial, agricultural, automotive, commercial, and consumer markets.  The Company's products include plastic containers, rubber tire repair products, and custom rubber materials.  Myers is also a wholesale distributor of tools, equipment, and supplies for the tire service and automotive underbody repair industry.

Time Technoplast Limited manufactures and sells technology based polymer products for a wide variety of industries.

The Pack Corporation produces paper products such as paper bags and corrugated cardboard boxes. The Company also manufactures plastic bags.

Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co. Ltd., manufactures steel products. The Company also provides metal packaging services. Shanghai Baosteel Packaging serves customers and clients internationally.

Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)

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Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization - Some New Information Worth the Attention

Baosteel's Offer Price was too low to generate good returns for ORG, leading to dissatisfaction and negotiations among all parties.ORG faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) - ORG Can't Afford to Lose, But Baosteel Is a Step Ahead

Baosteel's SOE background gives it an advantage in acquiring CPMC, while ORG offers a higher price and has major shareholder support in bid for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Will Baowu Raise the Offer Price After ORG?

Baowu has good reasons to raise the offer price as getting CPMC is of high value. Baosteel Packaging can enhance market share and profitability...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

An ORG offer has a low probability due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

Both bids for CPMC are progressing well, protecting its downside. Higher bid valuations are justified by strong underlying earnings growth. It...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization - Some New Information Worth the Attention

Baosteel's Offer Price was too low to generate good returns for ORG, leading to dissatisfaction and negotiations among all parties.ORG faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) - ORG Can't Afford to Lose, But Baosteel Is a Step Ahead

​Baosteel's SOE background gives it an advantage in acquiring CPMC, while ORG offers a higher price and has major shareholder support in bid for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Will Baowu Raise the Offer Price After ORG?

​Baowu has good reasons to raise the offer price as getting CPMC is of high value. Baosteel Packaging can enhance market share and profitability...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

An ORG offer has a low probability due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

​Both bids for CPMC are progressing well, protecting its downside. Higher bid valuations are justified by strong underlying earnings growth. It...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Baosteel's SOE background gives it an advantage in acquiring CPMC, while ORG offers a higher price and has major shareholder support in bid for...

Baowu has good reasons to raise the offer price as getting CPMC is of high value. Baosteel Packaging can enhance market share and profitability...

Both bids for CPMC are progressing well, protecting its downside. Higher bid valuations are justified by strong underlying earnings growth. It...