HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since ORG needs to pay a high price, it certainly hopes that the effect of the acquisition is 1+1&gt;2, otherwise it is equivalent to failure considering the future debt payment.</li>
<li>We’re unsure if the situation on Zhang Wei's side will change. If afterwards integration falls short of expectations, ORG may “deliberately slow down the progress”, which is a risk point.</li>
<li>Considering the complexity of this deal, we recommend investors do more comprehensive and deeper thinking. Due to risks behind, we certainly hope to obtain higher returns (at least 20% annualized).</li>
</ul>


Since ORG needs to pay a high price, it certainly hopes that the effect of the acquisition is 1+1&gt;2, otherwise it is equivalent to failure considering the future debt payment.
We’re unsure if the situation on Zhang Wei's side will change. If afterwards integration falls short of expectations, ORG may “deliberately slow down the progress”, which is a risk point.
Considering the complexity of this deal, we recommend investors do more comprehensive and deeper thinking. Due to risks behind, we certainly hope to obtain higher returns (at least 20% annualized).


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Update - These Are the Reasons Why We Find This Deal "Tricky"

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The monthly update notes further progress made by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> in satisfying the precondition for its HK$7.21 voluntary offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The remaining preconditions (ORG shareholder and NDRC/SAFE approval) are low-risk. Including irrevocable, ORG represents 46.45% of outstanding shares within reach of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>The two event risks (irrevocable termination date, precondition long stop date) should not derail the deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 4.9%. </li>
</ul>


The monthly update notes further progress made by ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) in satisfying the precondition for its HK$7.21 voluntary offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK). 
The remaining preconditions (ORG shareholder and NDRC/SAFE approval) are low-risk. Including irrevocable, ORG represents 46.45% of outstanding shares within reach of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. 
The two event risks (irrevocable termination date, precondition long stop date) should not derail the deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 4.9%. 


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Inching Towards the Launch of the Offer

<ul>
<li>Acquiring CPMC at low price is in line with Baosteel's strategic goals and the new assessment indicators of Baowu Group. This explains why Baosteel didn't choose to raise its Offer </li>
<li>ORG intends to acquire 100% equity of CPMC. This means state-owned capital needs to withdraw completely from CPMC. So, would China Foods/COFCO (both SOEs) agree to be acquired by ORG?</li>
<li>If ORG is “forced to” acquire CPMC due to Baosteel's low Offer Price, will ORG change mind and choose to withdraw midway?Such “potential unwillingness” from ORG makes the deal “tricky”.</li>
</ul>


Acquiring CPMC at low price is in line with Baosteel's strategic goals and the new assessment indicators of Baowu Group. This explains why Baosteel didn't choose to raise its Offer 
ORG intends to acquire 100% equity of CPMC. This means state-owned capital needs to withdraw completely from CPMC. So, would China Foods/COFCO (both SOEs) agree to be acquired by ORG?
If ORG is “forced to” acquire CPMC due to Baosteel's low Offer Price, will ORG change mind and choose to withdraw midway?Such “potential unwillingness” from ORG makes the deal “tricky”.


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update - Will ORG Withdraw Midway?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1024/2024102401219.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has no further comment on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology (002701 CH)</a>'s MAR report, and therefore that specific pre=condition has been fulfilled. </li>
<li>ORG will now hold an general meeting on the 11th November for shareholders to vote on the Offer for CPMC - this should be a two-thirds majority vote. </li>
<li>The pre-cons long stop date is the 6th January. Should all go to plan, you could be looking at late Janaury 2025 payment.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has announced that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has no further comment on ORG Technology (002701 CH)'s MAR report, and therefore that specific pre=condition has been fulfilled. 
ORG will now hold an general meeting on the 11th November for shareholders to vote on the Offer for CPMC - this should be a two-thirds majority vote. 
The pre-cons long stop date is the 6th January. Should all go to plan, you could be looking at late Janaury 2025 payment.


CPMC (906 HK): ORG Ticks Off Another Pre-Con

<ul>
<li>At the first close , SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0903/2024090302069.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">failed to secure the 50% acceptance condition</a>. No surprises there. What was a surprise was Champion Holdings letting the Offer <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0903/2024090302069.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lapse</a>. </li>
<li>Champion Holdings could have extended the Offer to the 30th Sept, which would have achieved little. But they could have bumped terms. They did neither.</li>
<li>That leaves <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> as the sole bidder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> . And arguably, an unwilling bidder at that. </li>
</ul>


At the first close , SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings failed to secure the 50% acceptance condition. No surprises there. What was a surprise was Champion Holdings letting the Offer lapse. 
Champion Holdings could have extended the Offer to the 30th Sept, which would have achieved little. But they could have bumped terms. They did neither.
That leaves ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) as the sole bidder for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) . And arguably, an unwilling bidder at that. 


China

CPMC Holdings Ltd. manufactures food packaging products.

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CPMC Holdings (906 HK)