Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The move from 80 index constituents to 100 could take most of next year (and possibly even the year after that) to manage turnover and add profitable companies.</li>
<li>Foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the index from the December rebalance. That makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> a high probability inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>We highlight 8 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.6-4.3 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.</li>
</ul>


The move from 80 index constituents to 100 could take most of next year (and possibly even the year after that) to manage turnover and add profitable companies.
Foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the index from the December rebalance. That makes Samsonite (1910 HK) a high probability inclusion candidate.
We highlight 8 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.6-4.3 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.


Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: Foreign Companies Eligible from December

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In contrary to a normalised quarter that we expect for Prada (1913 HK, BUY), we forecast Samsonite to extend its strength from 1H and report 3Q revenue/adj EBITDA of US$950/180mn (+20%/+36%).</li><li>We envisage this will be much driven by an intact global travel demand during summer holiday, which effectively manifested into luggage and bags sell-through.</li><li>By region, we look for revenue in North America/Europe/APAC to grow by 7%/35%+/20%+ to US$310/330/260mn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In contrary to a normalised quarter that we expect for Prada (1913 HK, BUY), we forecast Samsonite to extend its strength from 1H and report 3Q revenue/adj EBITDA of US$950/180mn (+20%/+36%).We envisage this will be much driven by an intact global travel demand during summer holiday, which effectively manifested into luggage and bags sell-through.By region, we look for revenue in North America/Europe/APAC to grow by 7%/35%+/20%+ to US$310/330/260mn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite (1910 HK) – 3Q Preview: Rev/Adj EBITDA +20%/36%

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

<ul><li>Samsonite reported a beat in its 1H results with both gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins kicking-in at 58.8% and 18.8% (vs CMBI estimates 57.0% and 17.2%), respectively.</li><li>Major driving forces were 1) 116% stack growth in organic sales vs 2019, 2) higher TUMI contribution that boosts gross margins, and 3) a 3.2pp YoY lower fixed SG&amp;A base as a result of ongoing cost initiative since 2019.</li><li>In our view, Samsonite has successfully steered itself out of the pandemic doldrums and the strength we have seen in 1H will continue to extent into 2H of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite reported a beat in its 1H results with both gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins kicking-in at 58.8% and 18.8% (vs CMBI estimates 57.0% and 17.2%), respectively.Major driving forces were 1) 116% stack growth in organic sales vs 2019, 2) higher TUMI contribution that boosts gross margins, and 3) a 3.2pp YoY lower fixed SG&amp;A base as a result of ongoing cost initiative since 2019.In our view, Samsonite has successfully steered itself out of the pandemic doldrums and the strength we have seen in 1H will continue to extent into 2H of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite (1910 HK) – 2Q Rev/Np +33%/49%; Strength Extending to 2H

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.</li>
<li>Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> is the biggest sell.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any constituent changes to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
We now see the index reaching its 100-member target in 2025 at the earliest, though we would not be surprised to see it spill into 2026 as well.
Free float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 1.2% resulting in a round trip trade of HK$4.54bn. HSBC Holdings (5 HK) is the biggest sell.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Idling at 82 Members; 100 Members in 2025 at the Earliest

United States

Capri Holdings Limited retails apparel. The Company offers fashion luxury women's and men's accessories, footwear, apparel, watches, jewelry, eyewear, and fragrance products, as well as provides delivery services. Capri Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes branded performance products for men, women, and youth. The Company designs and sells a broad offering of apparel and accessories made of synthetic microfibers.

Columbia Sportswear Company designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes active outdoor apparel.  The Company's products include outerwear, sportswear, rugged footwear, and related accessories.  Columbia's products are sold to specialty and department store retailers in the United States and other countries.

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs and markets fashion footwear for women.  The Company's shoes are sold through Steve Madden retail stores, department stores, apparel and footwear specialty stores, and online.  Steven Madden has licensees, including sportswear and jeans, outerwear, intimate apparel, eyewear, hosiery, and jewelry, and owns and operates a retail store under its David Aaron brand.

Carter's, Inc. markets baby and young children's apparel in the United States. The Company's brands are sold to national department stores, chain and specialty stores, discount retailers, and its own retail stores.

Hanesbrands, Inc. manufactures men's, women's, and children's clothing.  The Company produces underwear, T-shirts, socks, sweatshirts, sleepwear, and shoes.

PVH Corp. designs, sources, manufactures, and markets men's, women's, and children's apparel and footwear.  The Company markets its products at a wholesale level through department store chains and directly to consumers through retail stores. PVH Corp offers attire that includes dress shirts, sportswear, neckwear, and footwear.

Oxford Industries, Inc. is an international manufacturer and wholesale marketer of branded and private label apparel for men, women, and children.  The Company's private label customers include national chains, specialty catalogs, mass merchandisers, department stores, specialty stores, and Internet retailers.

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. is a manufacturer and distributor of outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, beachwear and women's suits, as well as handbags and luggage. The Company manufactures and distributes under licensed brands, their own brands, and private label brands. G-III also has licensing agreements with several sports leagues and universities.

Wolverine World Wide, Inc. manufactures and markets branded footwear and performance leathers.  The Company's products include shoes, slippers, occupational and safety footwear, and performance outdoor footwear, among others.

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

HLA CORP., Ltd. manufactures and markets apparel, woolen fabrics, woolen yarns, and textile raw materials, as well as provides dyeing and processing services. Heilan Home distributes their product globally.

Swan Energy Ltd., through a subsidiary, explores for or procures natural gas and liquefied natural gas for Gujarat.  The Company also develops the gas grid in Gujarat and distributes natural gas.

Fujian Funeng Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of textile including flannelette, cotton yarn, polyurethane synthetic leather, needling fabric, and water-jet bonding fabric.

KPR Mill Limited manufactures apparel products. The Company's products include carded and combed cotton and knitted fabrics.

Eclat Textile Co., Ltd. weaves, dyes, and sells fabrics, garments, yarns, and other textile materials.  The Company distributes its products in the local and overseas markets.

Makalot Industrial Co., Ltd. manufactures garments, including underwear, sleepwear, skirts, dresses, shirts, pants, shorts, etc.  The Company exports its products mostly to the United States.

Pou Chen Corporation manufactures and markets footwear products such as athletic shoes, leather shoes, plastics shoes and shoe soles. The Company markets its products in Taiwan and exports to the United States, South East Asia and Europe. Pou Chen's major business is shoe material trading.

Feng Tay Enterprise Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets athletic footwear products.  The Company's products include sneakers and roller blades. Its headquarters, primarily for product development and human resources functions, is located at Yunlin Science and Industrial Park in Taiwan, while its factories are spread throughout China, Vietnam, Indonesia and India.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd provides a wide range of mid-priced garments for men. The Company's collection includes internationally styled formal, elite, casual, party, and wedding apparel.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)

Samsonite International SA designs, manufactures, and distributes luggage. The Company's products include suitcases, garment bags, casual bags, business cases, clothing, shoes, and accessories. Samsonite also licenses their trademarks for use on products such as travel accessories, leather goods, handbags, clothing, and furniture.

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Samsonite (1910 HK)

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: Foreign Companies Eligible from December

There are 8 trading days to the announcement of the December rebalance results. With foreign companies newly eligible, Samsonite is a high...

Brian Freitas