Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> is OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. There will be a LONG reversal soon, and it should be a MONTHLY reversal (at least 1 month uptrending).</li>
<li>The WEEKLY model is telling us the market is oversold, but there is a possibility of having 1-2 more weeks down, that should be the end of the correction.</li>
<li>Go LONG Global Equities and pay attention to the MONTHLY (4203) and WEEKLY (4077) supports: if the index reaches these supports it will be <strong>very</strong> oversold.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 INDEX is OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. There will be a LONG reversal soon, and it should be a MONTHLY reversal (at least 1 month uptrending).
The WEEKLY model is telling us the market is oversold, but there is a possibility of having 1-2 more weeks down, that should be the end of the correction.
Go LONG Global Equities and pay attention to the MONTHLY (4203) and WEEKLY (4077) supports: if the index reaches these supports it will be very oversold.


EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. </li>
<li>The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. </li>
<li>Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.</li>
</ul>


24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. 
The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. 
Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.


Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming

The SP500 Index is WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD: a LONG reversal is expected soon in US equities and Asian and Global equities should follow.

Nico Rosti

Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming

​The SP500 Index is WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD: a LONG reversal is expected soon in US equities and Asian and Global equities should follow.

Nico Rosti

Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

​President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The SP500 Index is WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD: a LONG reversal is expected soon in US equities and Asian and Global equities should follow.

President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...