Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>E-Mini <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> Futures closed down at 4971.29 on Tuesday. Big recovery rally at the end of the day, but the sell-off could continue into the end of the week.</li>
<li>Both the DAILY and WEEKLY time period are already <strong>OVERSOLD</strong> according to our models, however we see no reason to rush to buy.</li>
<li>This insight is a roadmap for the next 2-3 days, to find support levels to go LONG, to profit on the next, DAILY, LONG reversal.</li>
</ul>


E-Mini S&amp;P 500 Futures closed down at 4971.29 on Tuesday. Big recovery rally at the end of the day, but the sell-off could continue into the end of the week.
Both the DAILY and WEEKLY time period are already OVERSOLD according to our models, however we see no reason to rush to buy.
This insight is a roadmap for the next 2-3 days, to find support levels to go LONG, to profit on the next, DAILY, LONG reversal.


EQD | E-Mini S&P500 (ES) DAILY Sell-OFF: Where Do You Buy?

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT, it may continue higher this week or the next but a pullback is behind the corner.</li>
<li>Currently the index has reached beyond the Q3 resistance target (4897) and it's up 4 weeks in a row.</li>
<li>Cover your LONG holdings for the upcoming pullback, going SHORT is also possible but maybe won't be much profitable as we expect the index main rally to last into April.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 INDEX is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT, it may continue higher this week or the next but a pullback is behind the corner.
Currently the index has reached beyond the Q3 resistance target (4897) and it's up 4 weeks in a row.
Cover your LONG holdings for the upcoming pullback, going SHORT is also possible but maybe won't be much profitable as we expect the index main rally to last into April.


EQD | SPX WEEKLY Rally Is About to Stop (Temporarily), Then Continue Into April

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> at the moment has lost its momentum and is pulling back towards the Q2 (4751) and Q3 (4713) support levels, where it would be DAILY OVERSOLD.</li>
<li>A DAILY reversal could happen today or tomorrow from prices between 4750 and 4700.</li>
<li>
<strong>This trade is a quick scalp</strong>, the goal is to profit from a 1-bar reversal, after that we cannot predict the market direction, so caution is advised.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 INDEX at the moment has lost its momentum and is pulling back towards the Q2 (4751) and Q3 (4713) support levels, where it would be DAILY OVERSOLD.
A DAILY reversal could happen today or tomorrow from prices between 4750 and 4700.

This trade is a quick scalp, the goal is to profit from a 1-bar reversal, after that we cannot predict the market direction, so caution is advised.


EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing

<ul>
<li>A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in "buckets", to generate a "matrix" showing the market's average trend reversal "behavior" at the end of each trend "type". </li>
<li>A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.</li>
<li>The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.</li>
</ul>


A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in "buckets", to generate a "matrix" showing the market's average trend reversal "behavior" at the end of each trend "type". 
A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.
The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.


EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | E-Mini S&P500 (ES) DAILY Sell-OFF: Where Do You Buy?

ES Futures closed down on Tuesday, the sell-off may continue into the end of the week. Our models scream "oversold", but we're in no rush to buy...

Nico Rosti

EQD | SPX WEEKLY Rally Is About to Stop (Temporarily), Then Continue Into April

The SPX is currently WEEKLY overbought, a pullback may come this week or the next. Cover LONG positions, going SHORT may not be profitable as the...

Nico Rosti

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing

The SPX Index's rally is losing momentum, the current pullback could soon reach Q2/Q3 support levels (OVERSOLD). A quick LONG scalp trade is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

"Market Reversal Matrix" is a newcomer on Smartkarma's platform. This is the "anchor" insight explaining the methodology and process behind this...

Nico Rosti

EQD | E-Mini S&P500 (ES) DAILY Sell-OFF: Where Do You Buy?

​ES Futures closed down on Tuesday, the sell-off may continue into the end of the week. Our models scream "oversold", but we're in no rush to buy...

Nico Rosti

EQD | SPX WEEKLY Rally Is About to Stop (Temporarily), Then Continue Into April

​The SPX is currently WEEKLY overbought, a pullback may come this week or the next. Cover LONG positions, going SHORT may not be profitable as the...

Nico Rosti

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing

​The SPX Index's rally is losing momentum, the current pullback could soon reach Q2/Q3 support levels (OVERSOLD). A quick LONG scalp trade is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

"Market Reversal Matrix" is a newcomer on Smartkarma's platform. This is the "anchor" insight explaining the methodology and process behind this...

Nico Rosti

ES Futures closed down on Tuesday, the sell-off may continue into the end of the week. Our models scream "oversold", but we're in no rush to buy...

The SPX is currently WEEKLY overbought, a pullback may come this week or the next. Cover LONG positions, going SHORT may not be profitable as the...

The SPX Index's rally is losing momentum, the current pullback could soon reach Q2/Q3 support levels (OVERSOLD). A quick LONG scalp trade is...