Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received, and we’re working on expanding it to more assets on a running basis.</li><li>It’s worth revisiting the points we raised about concentration in broader equity indices.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received, and we’re working on expanding it to more assets on a running basis.It’s worth revisiting the points we raised about concentration in broader equity indices.

Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>FOMC signalled in Mar’24 that 2.6%YoY core PCE inflation would allow three rate cuts in CY24. They now expect core PCE inflation of 2.8%YoY (above the Apr’24 reading of 2.75%YoY). </li>
<li>Core CPI inflation rose 0.2%MoM in May’24, suggesting a similarly benign outcome for core PCE. US M2 contracted for 16 months (Dec'22-Mar’24), an unprecedented tightening compensating for M2-excesses of Mar’20-Feb’22. </li>
<li>Aggressive QT in Mar-Apr’24 successfully squeezed out inflation, and core PCE inflation will likely stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24, allowing two 25bp cuts in the Fed Funds rate in CY24.  </li>
</ul>


FOMC signalled in Mar’24 that 2.6%YoY core PCE inflation would allow three rate cuts in CY24. They now expect core PCE inflation of 2.8%YoY (above the Apr’24 reading of 2.75%YoY). 
Core CPI inflation rose 0.2%MoM in May’24, suggesting a similarly benign outcome for core PCE. US M2 contracted for 16 months (Dec'22-Mar’24), an unprecedented tightening compensating for M2-excesses of Mar’20-Feb’22. 
Aggressive QT in Mar-Apr’24 successfully squeezed out inflation, and core PCE inflation will likely stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24, allowing two 25bp cuts in the Fed Funds rate in CY24.  


US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul>
<li>Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.</li>
<li>This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.</li>
<li>We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.</li>
</ul>


Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.
This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.
We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> in terms of free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> ranks higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> a week later.</li>
</ul>


The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to Apple (AAPL US) in terms of free float market cap.
If NVIDIA ranks higher than Apple on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to NVIDIA and outflows from Apple a week later.


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received,...

Steno Research

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?

Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all. This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas. We were...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

The XLK ETF has an AUM of US$70bn. Quarter-end diversification requirement rules could set off huge passive flows of over US$10bn for NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received,...

Steno Research

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. ​Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?

Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all. This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas. We were...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

The XLK ETF has an AUM of US$70bn. Quarter-end diversification requirement rules could set off huge passive flows of over US$10bn for NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

US M2 contraction (Dec'22-Mar'23) helped offset previous excesses. Core PCE inflation to stay below 2.6%YoY in H2CY24 (belying FOMC's latest...