Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned.</li><li>Markets are waiting patiently for the US CPI report today before placing their bets it seems, with little to no action seen yesterday and in European opening hours yesterday.</li><li>As elaborated upon in our “Week At a Glance” on Monday, we see hawkish surprises to both headline and core inflation , which will not be good news for markets, who have seemingly returned to their hopes of rate cut(s) this year.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned.Markets are waiting patiently for the US CPI report today before placing their bets it seems, with little to no action seen yesterday and in European opening hours yesterday.As elaborated upon in our “Week At a Glance” on Monday, we see hawkish surprises to both headline and core inflation , which will not be good news for markets, who have seemingly returned to their hopes of rate cut(s) this year.

Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (flat), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.5%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.3% of the index) was down by 2.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.3% of the index) was up by 4.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 1.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (22.3% of index) was down 3.3%</li><li>Top 10 Performers: LIDR, PNPN, PSIX, GCEI, EGT, MULN, IBAT, SLI, BLBD, ZEV</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (flat), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.5%).Energy Technology (12.3% of the index) was down by 2.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.3% of the index) was up by 4.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 1.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (22.3% of index) was down 3.3%Top 10 Performers: LIDR, PNPN, PSIX, GCEI, EGT, MULN, IBAT, SLI, BLBD, ZEV

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended May 10, 2024

<ul><li>Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”.</li><li>Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment is turning worse on both inflation -and liquidity metrics, while the growth variable remains positive (measured by the cyclical manufacturing momentum).</li><li>This leaves us in a classic “QT” environment with less obvious “gung ho” risk taking through April compared to the full-on risk positive environment we have seen over the past 4-5 months as continuously flagged and traded via our allocation tools.”Without the growth parameter being a home-run in our models, we mostly got the April correction right and also capitalized decently well on the liquidity withdrawal and the hot inflation report.</li></ul>

Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”.Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment is turning worse on both inflation -and liquidity metrics, while the growth variable remains positive (measured by the cyclical manufacturing momentum).This leaves us in a classic “QT” environment with less obvious “gung ho” risk taking through April compared to the full-on risk positive environment we have seen over the past 4-5 months as continuously flagged and traded via our allocation tools.”Without the growth parameter being a home-run in our models, we mostly got the April correction right and also capitalized decently well on the liquidity withdrawal and the hot inflation report.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise format.</li><li>Enjoy!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro:  <ul><li>Further tailwinds for risk assets?</li><li>A hot CPI report in the cards next week</li><li>More liquidity for markets ahead</li><li>UK Assets are looking increasingly interesting</li><li>Overall dollar weakness, but not against Asian FX?</li></ul></li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise format.Enjoy!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro:  Further tailwinds for risk assets?A hot CPI report in the cards next weekMore liquidity for markets aheadUK Assets are looking increasingly interestingOverall dollar weakness, but not against Asian FX?

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pioneer-natural-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10341:1" rel="noopener">Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistra-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27958:1" rel="noopener">Vistra (VST US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 7 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings</a> stock price to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> is near the lows.</li>
</ul>


Following Exxon Mobil (XOM US)'s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Vistra (VST US) will be added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 7 May.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings stock price to Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) is near the lows.


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned. Markets are waiting...

Steno Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended May 10, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (flat), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.5%).

Water Tower Research

Macro Regime Indicator May – UP UP UP!

Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”. Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise...

Steno Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

ExxonMobil's acquisition will lead to Vistra being added to the SPX. Marathon Digital is an inclusion to the SmallCap 600 index and there could be...

Brian Freitas