Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. </li>
<li>Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.</li>
<li>Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. </li>
</ul>


Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. 
Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.
Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. 


Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>July saw only 114,000 new jobs versus a forecast of 180,000. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.8% and dropped below its 50-day moving average, tech and semiconductor sectors led significant market declines. </li>
<li>Implied volatility surged as the S&amp;P 500 saw high put options activity. Analysts expect a potential market rebound later in August.</li>
</ul>


July saw only 114,000 new jobs versus a forecast of 180,000. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. 
The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.8% and dropped below its 50-day moving average, tech and semiconductor sectors led significant market declines. 
Implied volatility surged as the S&amp;P 500 saw high put options activity. Analysts expect a potential market rebound later in August.


Global Markets Plummet as Recession Fears, Weak Jobs Report, and Israel-Iran Conflicts Escalate

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> switched positions in June setting off huge flows. Those flows could reverse in September if the current index methodology is used.</li>
<li>To avoid frequent reverse turnover, S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology. We believe feedback will be positive and the proposals will be approved.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> will have inflows in September while there will be outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>. </li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Apple (AAPL US) switched positions in June setting off huge flows. Those flows could reverse in September if the current index methodology is used.
To avoid frequent reverse turnover, S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology. We believe feedback will be positive and the proposals will be approved.

Apple (AAPL US) will have inflows in September while there will be outflows from Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US). 


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$65bn.</li>
<li>The recent drop in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> has taken its market cap and free float market cap lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>. </li>
<li>If that continues to be the case on 13 September, there will be huge outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a> and huge inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a> at the close on 20 September.</li>
</ul>


The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$65bn.
The recent drop in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has taken its market cap and free float market cap lower than Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and Apple (AAPL US). 
If that continues to be the case on 13 September, there will be huge outflows for NVIDIA (NVDA) and huge inflows for Apple (AAPL) at the close on 20 September.


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Reversing the Huge Flows from June

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.</li>
<li>The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.</li>
<li>A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.</li>
</ul>


Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.
The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.
A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.


Asset Allocation Watch  – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

Wheat, corn, and soy futures exhibit surprising strength despite broader market declines, driven by the weakening US dollar, although year-to-date...

Mint Finance

Global Markets Plummet as Recession Fears, Weak Jobs Report, and Israel-Iran Conflicts Escalate

Global markets plunged on 5/Aug on recession fears and disappointing jobs data. S&P 500 fell 1.8% below its 50-day moving average. Investors fled...

Mint Finance

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)

To reduce reverse turnover, SnP have started a consultation to change the index weighting methodology. Passives will need to buy US$7bn in Apple...

Brian Freitas

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Reversing the Huge Flows from June

NVIDIA has dropped relative to MSFT and AAPL in the last 6 weeks. That could lead to big selling in NVDA and big buying in AAPL from the XLK ETF in...

Brian Freitas

Asset Allocation Watch – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September. The simple playbook is often...

Steno Research