Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.</li>
<li>Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.</li>
<li>With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.</li>
</ul>


Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.


Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP accelerated to 2.8%QoQsaar growth in Q2CY24 (from 1.4% in Q1), with sharp QoQ acceleration in PCE, investment and government spending, and restocking after three quarters of destocking. </li>
<li>In YoY terms, real GDP grew 3.1%YoY in Q2CY24 led by 5.8%YoY growth in gross investment. Core PCE inflation edged up to 2.63% YoY in Jun'24 (from May's 2.62%YoY). </li>
<li>The annualized rise in core PCE in H1CY24 was 3.33%, with only one month (May'24) of less than 2%MoM (annualized) increase -- insufficient to allow a rate cut before Sep'24. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP accelerated to 2.8%QoQsaar growth in Q2CY24 (from 1.4% in Q1), with sharp QoQ acceleration in PCE, investment and government spending, and restocking after three quarters of destocking. 
In YoY terms, real GDP grew 3.1%YoY in Q2CY24 led by 5.8%YoY growth in gross investment. Core PCE inflation edged up to 2.63% YoY in Jun'24 (from May's 2.62%YoY). 
The annualized rise in core PCE in H1CY24 was 3.33%, with only one month (May'24) of less than 2%MoM (annualized) increase -- insufficient to allow a rate cut before Sep'24. 


US: Strong Growth, Core PCE Inflation at 2.6%YoY Preclude an Immediate Rate Cut

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets.</li>
<li>The RTY rotation story is not all rosy. Momentum suggests that we are not as concentrated in equity markets as we think</li>
<li>Three weeks ago, when the dovish CPI print landed, the immediate reaction was a sell-off in large caps followed by an influx into small caps, with RTY rising &gt;10% over the week following the release. </li>
</ul>


Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets.
The RTY rotation story is not all rosy. Momentum suggests that we are not as concentrated in equity markets as we think
Three weeks ago, when the dovish CPI print landed, the immediate reaction was a sell-off in large caps followed by an influx into small caps, with RTY rising &gt;10% over the week following the release. 


Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Heavy lithium. Halfway through the year, the S&amp;P 500 has appreciated 15.4% YTD, driven by the strong performance of the Magnificent Seven, even as the remaining 490+ companies saw their stock prices move more in line with the Russell 2000, which itself posted an 7.8% gain YTD.</li><li>Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of their value due to collapsing lithium and synthetic graphite prices, driven by slower growth of EVs and steel production and liquidation of excess inventories by customers, built over the course of 2022-23.</li><li>Sticky costs remain as pricing power wanes. Over the course of 2022-23, many companies experiencing a rapid rise in raw material costs, driven by higher petrochemical prices and rising costs of transportation and logistics aggressively raised prices in an attempt to preserve profits, if not profit margins. </li></ul>

Heavy lithium. Halfway through the year, the S&amp;P 500 has appreciated 15.4% YTD, driven by the strong performance of the Magnificent Seven, even as the remaining 490+ companies saw their stock prices move more in line with the Russell 2000, which itself posted an 7.8% gain YTD.Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of their value due to collapsing lithium and synthetic graphite prices, driven by slower growth of EVs and steel production and liquidation of excess inventories by customers, built over the course of 2022-23.Sticky costs remain as pricing power wanes. Over the course of 2022-23, many companies experiencing a rapid rise in raw material costs, driven by higher petrochemical prices and rising costs of transportation and logistics aggressively raised prices in an attempt to preserve profits, if not profit margins. 

Mat-Chem Notes - Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 2H24 Outlook

Podcast of business and financial stories, Behind the Money

Behind the Money

Podcast of business and financial stories

From hostile takeovers to C-suite intrigue, Behind the Money takes you inside the business and financial stories of the moment with reporting from Financial Times journalists around the world.

<ul><li>Business executives blame regulations for hindering innovation and making products more expensive</li><li>Supreme Court overturned Chevron deference, giving businesses more power to challenge regulations</li><li>The end of Chevron rule may lead to confusion and legal challenges for businesses in regulated industries</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Business executives blame regulations for hindering innovation and making products more expensiveSupreme Court overturned Chevron deference, giving businesses more power to challenge regulationsThe end of Chevron rule may lead to confusion and legal challenges for businesses in regulated industriesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; New Risk-Off Signals Suggest Pullback in $SPX and $QQQ to Continue, looking for pullbacks to 5100-5191...

Vermilion Research

US: Strong Growth, Core PCE Inflation at 2.6%YoY Preclude an Immediate Rate Cut

Core PCE increased 3.33% annualized in H1CY24, and was up 2.63%YoY in Jun'24. With real GDP growing 2.8%QoQsaar and 3.1%YoY in Q2CY24, the FOMC is...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets The RTY rotation story is not all rosy Momentum suggests that we are not as...

Steno Research

Mat-Chem Notes - Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 2H24 Outlook

Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of...

Water Tower Research

Less Regulation, More Problems?

The overturning of the Chevron deference by the Supreme Court may lead to increased challenges of regulations by businesses, causing uncertainty...

Behind the Money