Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.</li>
<li>Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.


NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) - Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With CPI inflation still 6%YoY and core CPI +5.5%YoY (annualised 6%MoM) in Feb'23, the Fed will be obliged to hike 25bp, and likely also reintroduce a reserve requirement for banks. </li>
<li>Unemployment at 3.6% is far below the long-accepted NAIRU of 4.5%, reflected also in average wages still rising 4.6%YoY in Feb'23. M2 declined in Dec'22-Jan'23 but needs to contract more. </li>
<li>A 50bp hike would've been warranted, but the collapse of 3 tech-related banks obliges the Fed to be a bit circumspect. The disappearance of CS can't influence the FOMC decision. </li>
</ul>


With CPI inflation still 6%YoY and core CPI +5.5%YoY (annualised 6%MoM) in Feb'23, the Fed will be obliged to hike 25bp, and likely also reintroduce a reserve requirement for banks. 
Unemployment at 3.6% is far below the long-accepted NAIRU of 4.5%, reflected also in average wages still rising 4.6%YoY in Feb'23. M2 declined in Dec'22-Jan'23 but needs to contract more. 
A 50bp hike would've been warranted, but the collapse of 3 tech-related banks obliges the Fed to be a bit circumspect. The disappearance of CS can't influence the FOMC decision. 


US: Elevated Inflation and Tight Labour Market to Force Hikes Despite Bank Turmoil

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In Econote No. 110 ( Nov.Dec 2022) we broached the topic of investing in the Defence sectors of various West and Asian economies.</li>
<li>The reasons for this were very simple: First, the war in the Ukraine resulted to a sharp rise in defence spending in western countries and, second, this rise would not cease with the end of the war but presented a pivot to higher defence spending, not only in western countries, but also in areas such as Asia.</li>
<li>Hence the outlook for Defence stocks was, and is very bright, as witnessed by their persistent outperformance of the S&amp;P 500 and still reasonable valuations.</li>
</ul>


In Econote No. 110 ( Nov.Dec 2022) we broached the topic of investing in the Defence sectors of various West and Asian economies.
The reasons for this were very simple: First, the war in the Ukraine resulted to a sharp rise in defence spending in western countries and, second, this rise would not cease with the end of the war but presented a pivot to higher defence spending, not only in western countries, but also in areas such as Asia.
Hence the outlook for Defence stocks was, and is very bright, as witnessed by their persistent outperformance of the S&amp;P 500 and still reasonable valuations.


Ecognosis Advisory Ltd - ECONOTE No. 111 Investing in the Defence Sector

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.
The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) - Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...