Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Cracks are appearing in the US labor market, bringing relief for the Federal Reserve concerning inflation. But higher unemployment significantly increases the odds of a US recession.</li>
<li>The increase in Federal Reserve liquidity is keeping markets afloat. But assuming the banking crisis does not worsen from here, liquidity will reverse.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away from ‘Frenzy’ but remains in Neutral territory. Futures positioning and equity flows worsened, pushing the Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index toward ‘Fear.’</li>
</ul>


Cracks are appearing in the US labor market, bringing relief for the Federal Reserve concerning inflation. But higher unemployment significantly increases the odds of a US recession.
The increase in Federal Reserve liquidity is keeping markets afloat. But assuming the banking crisis does not worsen from here, liquidity will reverse.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away from ‘Frenzy’ but remains in Neutral territory. Futures positioning and equity flows worsened, pushing the Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index toward ‘Fear.’


Weekly Market Monitor 14 - Did the Fed Finally Break the US Labor Market?

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The US 10-year rates futures had rallied for six consecutive days while Growth and Momentum stocks lagged.</li><li>Wednesday was a marked change, with NASDAQ falling while bonds rallied sharply.</li><li>It was a day when value and small caps outperformed FANMG and Growth stocks.</li></ul>

The US 10-year rates futures had rallied for six consecutive days while Growth and Momentum stocks lagged.Wednesday was a marked change, with NASDAQ falling while bonds rallied sharply.It was a day when value and small caps outperformed FANMG and Growth stocks.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally.</li>
<li>A push back toward SPX 4,200 will put the final touches on the buoyant April recovery cycle toward SPX 4,200/20. There is risk the rally falters below 4,200.</li>
<li>US 10yr yield hovering above 3.20% lower wedge support per call for an undershoot below 3.35%. </li>
</ul>


SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally.
A push back toward SPX 4,200 will put the final touches on the buoyant April recovery cycle toward SPX 4,200/20. There is risk the rally falters below 4,200.
US 10yr yield hovering above 3.20% lower wedge support per call for an undershoot below 3.35%. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global stocks rose again this week, with the MSCI World index and the S&amp;P 500 gaining 3.61% and 3.33%, respectively.</li><li>The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 3.71% and the NASDAQ was up a similar 3.36%.</li><li>Cannabis stocks as represented by the MSOS ETF fell 2.28% on the week.</li></ul>

Global stocks rose again this week, with the MSCI World index and the S&amp;P 500 gaining 3.61% and 3.33%, respectively.The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 3.71% and the NASDAQ was up a similar 3.36%.Cannabis stocks as represented by the MSOS ETF fell 2.28% on the week.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Weekly Market Monitor 14 - Did the Fed Finally Break the US Labor Market?

Welcome to the weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Ignoring Tailwinds

The US 10-year rates futures had rallied for six consecutive days while Growth and Momentum stocks lagged. Wednesday was a marked change, with...

Untying The Gordian Knot

SPX 4,100 Bull Turn

SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally to SPX 4,200 where we...

Thomas Schroeder

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

The $SPX reversed topside the 2-month downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023;...

Vermilion Research

The Highlights

Global stocks rose again this week, with the MSCI World index and the S&P 500 gaining 3.61% and 3.33%, respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000...

Water Tower Research