Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down</li>
<li>US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession</li>
<li>We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread</li>
</ul>


Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down
US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession
We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread


EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

<ul>
<li>US CPI data is due on Thursday 12th January and is likley to be another important data point</li>
<li>SPX Index is down nearly 5% since November and NDX Index is down nearly 8% over the same period</li>
<li>We look for short-term trading opportunities in the options market</li>
</ul>


US CPI data is due on Thursday 12th January and is likley to be another important data point
SPX Index is down nearly 5% since November and NDX Index is down nearly 8% over the same period
We look for short-term trading opportunities in the options market


EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950 is unfolding with risk of an early failure. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce.</li>
<li>Sell points noted at 3,950 with scope to 3,980. We are using NDX and RTY as our short vehicles.</li>
<li>DXY still needs some time to base at 103/102 but a low would fit with a risk top here.</li>
</ul>


SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950 is unfolding with risk of an early failure. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce.
Sell points noted at 3,950 with scope to 3,980. We are using NDX and RTY as our short vehicles.
DXY still needs some time to base at 103/102 but a low would fit with a risk top here.


Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US QT will soon melt away into a ‘stealth QE’ under pressure from illiquidity in key financial markets. QT is effectively already dead
</li>
<li>Recent experiences by the UK (September) and Japanese (December) Monetary Authorities evidence poor sovereign debt market liquidity 
</li>
<li>Lesson is that QE and QT are not symmetric policies: QE is easier to engage than to disengage via QT. This likely puts a floor under Global Liquidity in 2023</li>
</ul>


US QT will soon melt away into a ‘stealth QE’ under pressure from illiquidity in key financial markets. QT is effectively already dead

Recent experiences by the UK (September) and Japanese (December) Monetary Authorities evidence poor sovereign debt market liquidity 

Lesson is that QE and QT are not symmetric policies: QE is easier to engage than to disengage via QT. This likely puts a floor under Global Liquidity in 2023


Is QT Already Dead? Can The Fed Really ‘Ease’ Liquidity And Still ‘Tighten’?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

We consider the volatility outlook for Chinese equities versus those in the US. We identify two relative value volatility spreads to monetise our...

Simon Harris

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market

We take a look at the upcoming CPI release in the US. We consider what moves are priced in to the derivatives market and look for short-term...

Simon Harris

SPX Bounce to Short

SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950 is unfolding with risk of an early failure. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce. NDX is our short...

Thomas Schroeder

Is QT Already Dead? Can The Fed Really ‘Ease’ Liquidity And Still ‘Tighten’?

US QT will soon melt away into a ‘stealth QE’ under pressure from illiquidity in key financial markets. QT is effectively already dead. This puts a...

Michael J. Howell