Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.</li>
<li>The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.</li>
<li>The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. </li>
</ul>


There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.
The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.
The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. 


When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 14, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 1.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.8%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 0.3%).</li><li>Energy Technology (8.0% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 4.7%, while Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.3% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 2.7%.</li><li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 28.5x versus 18.9x for the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul></div>

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 14, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 1.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.8%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 0.3%).Energy Technology (8.0% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 4.7%, while Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.3% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 2.7%.Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 28.5x versus 18.9x for the S&amp;P 500.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 14, 2023

<ul><li>Broad equity indexes booked their fourth straight week of positive returns, with the MSCI World Index and the S&amp;P 500 up 1.23% and 0.79%, respectively.</li><li>Small caps followed suit, with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.48% this week.</li><li>Cannabis stocks slid for the sixth straight week, with the MSOS ETF declining 0.56%. It was shaping up to be a good week until the MSOS ETF fell 3.97% on Friday.</li></ul>

Broad equity indexes booked their fourth straight week of positive returns, with the MSCI World Index and the S&amp;P 500 up 1.23% and 0.79%, respectively.Small caps followed suit, with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.48% this week.Cannabis stocks slid for the sixth straight week, with the MSOS ETF declining 0.56%. It was shaping up to be a good week until the MSOS ETF fell 3.97% on Friday.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 14, 2023

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets, Kaiko

Kaiko

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

Crypto

<ul><li>Last week, the Shapella upgrade went live without a hitch, enabling millions of staked ETH to be withdrawn.</li><li>While Ethereum's Merge upgrade last September was more of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type of event, Shapella appears to have had the opposite impact on price.</li><li>ETH spot prices dropped by nearly 18% post-Merge while they are up 11% since Shapella, despite fears of mass selling. </li></ul>

Last week, the Shapella upgrade went live without a hitch, enabling millions of staked ETH to be withdrawn.While Ethereum's Merge upgrade last September was more of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type of event, Shapella appears to have had the opposite impact on price.ETH spot prices dropped by nearly 18% post-Merge while they are up 11% since Shapella, despite fears of mass selling. 

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Empirical data since 1970 reveals that US Equities and Treasuries perform well after a peak in inflation, while Commodities and Gold lag.

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended April 14, 2023

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended April 14, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 1.0% W/W...

Water Tower Research

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 14, 2023

Broad equity indexes booked their fourth straight week of positive returns, with the MSCI World Index and the S&P 500 up 1.23% and 0.79%,...

Water Tower Research

ETH's Big Post-Shapella Rally

While Ethereum's Merge upgrade last September was more of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type of event, Shapella appears to have had the opposite...

Kaiko