Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this CPI ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.</li>
<li>We see inflation coming in lower than expected again both in headline- and core terms</li>
<li>USD could weaken, while positive vibes could resurface around global equities </li>
</ul>


In this CPI ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.
We see inflation coming in lower than expected again both in headline- and core terms
USD could weaken, while positive vibes could resurface around global equities 


US Inflation Watch – Charts, Charts, Charts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Union Budget 2023-24 lived up to all the market expectations, which was driven primarily by capital expenditure while simultaneously providing an adequate thrust to rural welfare and agriculture.</li><li>While the government successfully achieved the fiscal deficit target for FY23, it has now pegged a fiscal deficit target of 5.9% for FY24, which seems achievable.</li><li>This year’s Budget rightly focused more on Capex spending (to the tune of Rs 10 Lc Cr) with the government’s plans to provide a significant thrust to the country’s infrastructure development including impetus to the Roads, Railways, Airways, Ports, Mass Transports, Waterways, and Logistics Infra development.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The Union Budget 2023-24 lived up to all the market expectations, which was driven primarily by capital expenditure while simultaneously providing an adequate thrust to rural welfare and agriculture.While the government successfully achieved the fiscal deficit target for FY23, it has now pegged a fiscal deficit target of 5.9% for FY24, which seems achievable.This year’s Budget rightly focused more on Capex spending (to the tune of Rs 10 Lc Cr) with the government’s plans to provide a significant thrust to the country’s infrastructure development including impetus to the Roads, Railways, Airways, Ports, Mass Transports, Waterways, and Logistics Infra development.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>We are now ready to present our Macro Regime Indicator framework</li>
<li>We base our tactical allocation indicator on three major variables: Liquidity, inflation and growth</li>
<li>We find liquidity to be added short-term, inflation to be waning and growth to be somewhat bouncing. All-in-all BETTER than feared.</li>
</ul>


We are now ready to present our Macro Regime Indicator framework
We base our tactical allocation indicator on three major variables: Liquidity, inflation and growth
We find liquidity to be added short-term, inflation to be waning and growth to be somewhat bouncing. All-in-all BETTER than feared.


Asset Allocation Watch: Introducing Our Macro Regime Indicator Methodology

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Last week delivered a host of bullish MT USD reversal patterns across USD/G10 and USD/Asia pairs.</li>
<li>USDJPY has responded impulsively to critical LT support around 127.50. February has the potential to confirm a return to the multi-year uptrend with aggressive targets around 175/180.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Last week delivered a host of bullish MT USD reversal patterns across USD/G10 and USD/Asia pairs.
USDJPY has responded impulsively to critical LT support around 127.50. February has the potential to confirm a return to the multi-year uptrend with aggressive targets around 175/180.


USDJPY - Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Inflation Watch – Charts, Charts, Charts

We bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming US CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to...

Steno Research

Multi Asset Strategy - February 2023

While the government successfully achieved the fiscal deficit target for FY23, it has now pegged a fiscal deficit target of 5.9% for FY24, which...

Axis Direct

Asset Allocation Watch: Introducing Our Macro Regime Indicator Methodology

Our macro regime indicator is based on liquidity, inflation and growth, which are the three most important tactical asset allocation variables....

Steno Research

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

USDJPY - Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT