Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended February 10, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.4%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 2.4%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (70% of the index) drove the outperformance, rising 1.7% , while Energy Technology (9% of index) was down 5.0% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 2.2%.</li><li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 24.5x versus 18.4x for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended February 10, 2023, there were five <span style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: underline;">increases</span> (three in Energy Technology and two in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates. There were <span style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration: underline;">decreases</span> in 2022 revenue estimates for two companies each in Advanced Transportation Solutions and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology.</li></ul>

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended February 10, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.4%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 2.4%). Advanced Transportation Solutions (70% of the index) drove the outperformance, rising 1.7% , while Energy Technology (9% of index) was down 5.0% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 2.2%.Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 24.5x versus 18.4x for the S&amp;P 500.Consensus estimates changes: During the week ended February 10, 2023, there were five increases (three in Energy Technology and two in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates. There were decreases in 2022 revenue estimates for two companies each in Advanced Transportation Solutions and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended February 10, 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Asian Dollar Index is down (US Dollar up) 1.7% from 1st -13th February.</li><li>After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during the same period in February.</li><li>The Bloomberg Dollar index is up 1.78%, and the DXY index is up 2.57%.</li></ul>

The Asian Dollar Index is down (US Dollar up) 1.7% from 1st -13th February.After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during the same period in February.The Bloomberg Dollar index is up 1.78%, and the DXY index is up 2.57%.

<ul>
<li>January CPI is due on Tuesday 14th and the market is expecting the biggest rise since October</li>
<li>The SPX has rallied over 7% since December but the Yield Curve has been moving higher and the equity rhetoric is turning negative</li>
<li>We look at a short-term trading opportunity in the options market to play the print</li>
</ul>


January CPI is due on Tuesday 14th and the market is expecting the biggest rise since October
The SPX has rallied over 7% since December but the Yield Curve has been moving higher and the equity rhetoric is turning negative
We look at a short-term trading opportunity in the options market to play the print


EQD | SPX Index : CPI Data Is Set to Raise Inflation Fears Again.Use Daily Options to Play the Event

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended February 10, 2023

Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 24.5x versus 18.4x for the S&P 500.

Water Tower Research

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

The Butterfly Effect

After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during...

Untying The Gordian Knot

EQD | SPX Index : CPI Data Is Set to Raise Inflation Fears Again.Use Daily Options to Play the Event

US CPI data is out on Tues 14th. We look at the market expectations and the current positioning in Equities. We consider the potential for a move...

Simon Harris