Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Over the past week we received the monthly Fund Manager survey suggesting that UK and Europe are now (clearly) underweight relative to benchmark allocations, while also China is essentially un-investable according to the survey.</li>
<li>Interestingly, the survey also reveals that managers are still not net/net long Energy relative to benchmarks, which is an interesting observation given the performance in that sector in recent months.</li>
<li>With energy outperforming indices, higher rates typically follow as well.</li>
</ul>


Over the past week we received the monthly Fund Manager survey suggesting that UK and Europe are now (clearly) underweight relative to benchmark allocations, while also China is essentially un-investable according to the survey.
Interestingly, the survey also reveals that managers are still not net/net long Energy relative to benchmarks, which is an interesting observation given the performance in that sector in recent months.
With energy outperforming indices, higher rates typically follow as well.


Positioning Watch: Energy is not (yet) a consensus

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.</li>
<li>Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.</li>
<li>Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.</li>
</ul>


The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.
Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.
Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.


The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Central Banks Decide

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>WTR-CMI last week. Last week saw the market retrench, with the S&amp;P 500 losing 1.3%, while our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks managed to modestly outperform the broader Russell 2000 index (-3.6%) by declining 3.4%.</p></li><li><p>Only one stock in our index, SXT, managed a positive gain for the week, appreciating 3%. FMC was the worst performer in our index, losing 12.3% of its value on a short seller’s report that the company felt obliged to address.</p></li><li><p>Ag-tech portfolio shuffles continue. Privately held DLF, a global seed company, completed the acquisition of CTVA’s alfalfa seed breeding program, which was announced last month.</p></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

WTR-CMI last week. Last week saw the market retrench, with the S&amp;P 500 losing 1.3%, while our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks managed to modestly outperform the broader Russell 2000 index (-3.6%) by declining 3.4%.Only one stock in our index, SXT, managed a positive gain for the week, appreciating 3%. FMC was the worst performer in our index, losing 12.3% of its value on a short seller’s report that the company felt obliged to address.Ag-tech portfolio shuffles continue. Privately held DLF, a global seed company, completed the acquisition of CTVA’s alfalfa seed breeding program, which was announced last month.

Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 8, 2023

<ul>
<li>US headline inflation disappointed. But the underlying CPI data is less concerning than the headline inflation rate suggests.</li>
<li>This means another Fed rate hike is now de facto dependent on oil prices and Saudi Arabia. Not where you want to be as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks perform well following a peak in inflation, but historical performance has been entirely priced in with a return of almost 18% since last year’s peak. </li>
</ul>


US headline inflation disappointed. But the underlying CPI data is less concerning than the headline inflation rate suggests.
This means another Fed rate hike is now de facto dependent on oil prices and Saudi Arabia. Not where you want to be as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Historically, stocks perform well following a peak in inflation, but historical performance has been entirely priced in with a return of almost 18% since last year’s peak. 


Saudi Arabia Is Now in Charge of the Federal Reserve

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Positioning Watch: Energy is not (yet) a consensus

Over the past week we received the monthly Fund Manager survey suggesting that UK and Europe are now (clearly) underweight relative to benchmark...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

Markets got a dovish ECB hike but wrapped in a highly conflicting message, and one that will likely qualify as a policy mistake in hindsight.

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Central Banks Decide

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 8, 2023

Ag-tech portfolio shuffles continue. Privately held DLF, a global seed company, completed the acquisition of CTVA’s alfalfa seed breeding program,...

Water Tower Research

Saudi Arabia Is Now in Charge of the Federal Reserve

Whether the Fed hikes again largely depends on Saudi Arabia and oil and energy prices, all outside Powell's span of control.

Jeroen Blokland