Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.</li>
<li>We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. </li>
<li>With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. </li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.
We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. 
With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

<ul>
<li>We examine asset class performance over 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after a 15%+ oil price increase in one month and a 25%+ spike in three months.</li>
<li>Historically, oil price shocks were not detrimental to stocks. Returns were positive for all periods after the shock. More importantly, returns were higher after oil shocks than the ‘normal’ </li>
<li>Gold also outperformed, and interestingly, oil continued to spike, causing additional headaches for central banks. Mainly since spiking oil prices are indeed reflected in higher inflation.</li>
</ul>


We examine asset class performance over 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after a 15%+ oil price increase in one month and a 25%+ spike in three months.
Historically, oil price shocks were not detrimental to stocks. Returns were positive for all periods after the shock. More importantly, returns were higher after oil shocks than the ‘normal’ 
Gold also outperformed, and interestingly, oil continued to spike, causing additional headaches for central banks. Mainly since spiking oil prices are indeed reflected in higher inflation.


Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.</li><li>Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.</li><li>Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.</li></ul>

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>A strong recovery in developed economies’ growth prospects and expectations of restricted oil supply till the end of 2024 have rallied oil benchmark prices since the start of July-2023.</li><li>Last week, when Saudi Arabia and Russia announced a voluntary daily supply cut of a combined 1.3 million barrels as global oil inventories hit a 13-month low, Brent crude oil prices ticked up close to 2% to a 10-month high and closed above $90/bbl.</li><li>Tighter supply conditions and the resultant impact on oil prices now play a pivotal role in dictating the direction of global inflation levels.</li></ul>

A strong recovery in developed economies’ growth prospects and expectations of restricted oil supply till the end of 2024 have rallied oil benchmark prices since the start of July-2023.Last week, when Saudi Arabia and Russia announced a voluntary daily supply cut of a combined 1.3 million barrels as global oil inventories hit a 13-month low, Brent crude oil prices ticked up close to 2% to a 10-month high and closed above $90/bbl.Tighter supply conditions and the resultant impact on oil prices now play a pivotal role in dictating the direction of global inflation levels.

Evolving Correlation Between Oil Prices and US Sector Credit Risks

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.5%).</li><li>Energy Technology (15.0% of the index) contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 1.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.3% of the index) was down 2%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 3.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: MULN, CMC, FFIE, NKLA, CRGE, WUC, NNOMF, XOS, AZRE, CPTN</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.5%).Energy Technology (15.0% of the index) contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 1.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.3% of the index) was down 2%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 3.7%.Top 10 Performers: MULN, CMC, FFIE, NKLA, CRGE, WUC, NNOMF, XOS, AZRE, CPTN

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended September 15, 2023

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

One-and-a-half hawkish central bank pauses spooked equity investors, who are running out of narratives to keep stocks from falling.

Jeroen Blokland

Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?

Oil price shocks push inflation higher and favor Gold as an asset class, but unlike what many believe, are not bad news for Equities!

Jeroen Blokland

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the...

Steno Research

Evolving Correlation Between Oil Prices and US Sector Credit Risks

A strong recovery in developed economies’ growth prospects and expectations of restricted oil supply till the end of 2024 have rallied oil...

Criat

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended September 15, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.8% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down...

Water Tower Research