Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.</li><li>I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.</li><li>Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.</li></ul>

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One reason the Global Fund Manager Survey is interesting is that it often contains contradictions concerning investor positioning.</li>
<li>Global Fund Managers are joining the AI boom, are heavily overweight tech stocks, but only 54% of them expect AI to boost company profits.</li>
<li>We believe global fund managers are long tech stocks because of strong momentum and the market extrapolation of artificial intelligence impacting earnings and sales growth, not because of superior fundamentals. </li>
</ul>


One reason the Global Fund Manager Survey is interesting is that it often contains contradictions concerning investor positioning.
Global Fund Managers are joining the AI boom, are heavily overweight tech stocks, but only 54% of them expect AI to boost company profits.
We believe global fund managers are long tech stocks because of strong momentum and the market extrapolation of artificial intelligence impacting earnings and sales growth, not because of superior fundamentals. 


High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul>
<li>The ITB US Home Construction ETF is now up 33% YTD and represents one of the biggest market surprises for me so far in 2023.</li>
<li>This group has flashed relative strength vs. the S&amp;P 500 since December 2022 and continues to one of the top performing groups.</li>
<li>After undergoing correction in 2022, the homebuilders sector has tons of weekly charts breaking out of long and healthy weekly bases in strong uptrends</li>
</ul>


The ITB US Home Construction ETF is now up 33% YTD and represents one of the biggest market surprises for me so far in 2023.
This group has flashed relative strength vs. the S&amp;P 500 since December 2022 and continues to one of the top performing groups.
After undergoing correction in 2022, the homebuilders sector has tons of weekly charts breaking out of long and healthy weekly bases in strong uptrends


Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>For the first time in the current melt-up, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment has touched ‘Frenzy’ territory, suggesting the rally has run its course, at least temporarily.</li>
<li>China has cut rates and is contemplating more stimulus to bolster sectors like real estate and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the economy continues to slow.</li>
<li>In a surprise move, Blackrock has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF with Coinbase as a custodian!</li>
</ul>


For the first time in the current melt-up, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment has touched ‘Frenzy’ territory, suggesting the rally has run its course, at least temporarily.
China has cut rates and is contemplating more stimulus to bolster sectors like real estate and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the economy continues to slow.
In a surprise move, Blackrock has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF with Coinbase as a custodian!


The Weekly Market Monitor (24) – Our Key Sentiment Index Signals Market FRENZY

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.

The Commodity Report

Artificial Inconsistencies

Artificial Intelligence brings the Beatles back together, and Global Fund Managers are joining the AI boom. But NOT because of superior fundamentals.

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/19

The ITB US Home Construction ETF is now up 33% YTD and represents one of the biggest market surprises for me so far in 2023.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

The Weekly Market Monitor (24) – Our Key Sentiment Index Signals Market FRENZY

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index is on the verge of entering FRENZY territory, which would be the first time during the latest rally!

Jeroen Blokland