Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).</li>
<li>We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs</li>
</ul>


Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.
As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).
We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs


Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>All our forward-looking EPS indicators have shown improvement over the past few months. Nevertheless, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors anticipate the opposite. </li>
<li>Developed Market earnings per share are well above the long-term trend. One must make a compelling case for earnings to structurally grow faster to sustain this trend. </li>
<li>Big Tech’s earnings superiority has vanished. With a significant concentration of expensive stocks in Big Tech, earnings expectations must be exceptionally (perhaps unreasonably) high.</li>
</ul>


All our forward-looking EPS indicators have shown improvement over the past few months. Nevertheless, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors anticipate the opposite. 
Developed Market earnings per share are well above the long-term trend. One must make a compelling case for earnings to structurally grow faster to sustain this trend. 
Big Tech’s earnings superiority has vanished. With a significant concentration of expensive stocks in Big Tech, earnings expectations must be exceptionally (perhaps unreasonably) high.


Make or Break? A Close Examination of Company Earnings as We Head into Q3 Earnings Season

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, the MSCI World Index gained 0.36%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.94%.</li><li>The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&amp;P 500 is +12.83, and NASDAQ is +28.10%.</li><li>This is surprising, as small caps typically lead off a bear market bottom. However, during this cycle, large tech is leading the way.</li></ul>

Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, the MSCI World Index gained 0.36%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.94%.The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&amp;P 500 is +12.83, and NASDAQ is +28.10%.This is surprising, as small caps typically lead off a bear market bottom. However, during this cycle, large tech is leading the way.

The Highlights - Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY 50 Index</a> closed last week up at 19751.05, 2nd week up, in synch with the S&amp;P 500 INDEX WEEKLY bounce.</li>
<li>The index has not moved up much from a price perspective, weak bounce. Resistance levels must be monitored: if the index rallies this week it could pull back next week.</li>
<li>The trade orientation is to go SHORT once the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> reaches Q2/Q3 OVERBOUGHT resistance levels in the 20167-20230 price area, this week. SHORT Trade at Close is also valid.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY 50 Index closed last week up at 19751.05, 2nd week up, in synch with the S&amp;P 500 INDEX WEEKLY bounce.
The index has not moved up much from a price perspective, weak bounce. Resistance levels must be monitored: if the index rallies this week it could pull back next week.
The trade orientation is to go SHORT once the NIFTY reaches Q2/Q3 OVERBOUGHT resistance levels in the 20167-20230 price area, this week. SHORT Trade at Close is also valid.


EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Weak Bounce, Ready to Fall Next Week?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Our view since late Sept remains unchanged: if $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish, as most signs point to this being a...

Vermilion Research

Make or Break? A Close Examination of Company Earnings as We Head into Q3 Earnings Season

Our forward-looking EPS indicators have improved. Yet, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors...

Jeroen Blokland

The Highlights - Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&P 500 is +12.83, and...

Water Tower Research

EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Weak Bounce, Ready to Fall Next Week?

The NIFTY 50 Index closed higher last week, but resistance levels should be monitored as a potential pullback could occur the week after this, if...

Nico Rosti

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Our view since late Sept remains unchanged: if $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish, as most signs point to this being a...

Vermilion Research

Make or Break? A Close Examination of Company Earnings as We Head into Q3 Earnings Season

Our forward-looking EPS indicators have improved. Yet, our aggregated bellwether EPS indicator points to negative earnings growth, while investors...

Jeroen Blokland

The Highlights - Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&P 500 is +12.83, and...

Water Tower Research

EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Weak Bounce, Ready to Fall Next Week?

​The NIFTY 50 Index closed higher last week, but resistance levels should be monitored as a potential pullback could occur the week after this, if...

Nico Rosti

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

The NIFTY 50 Index closed higher last week, but resistance levels should be monitored as a potential pullback could occur the week after this, if...