Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).</li>
<li>Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.</li>
<li>Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).


Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 2.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.8%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.2% of the index) was down by 12.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.4% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was down 8.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 3.8%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers<span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">: PGTK, BLDE, XOS, REE, CECE, LBNK, FL, INVZ, FE, BLNK</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 2.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.8%).Energy Technology (12.2% of the index) was down by 12.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.4% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was down 8.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 3.8%.Top 10 Performers: PGTK, BLDE, XOS, REE, CECE, LBNK, FL, INVZ, FE, BLNK

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended November 10, 2023

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. </li>
<li>Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.</li>
<li>SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.</li>
</ul>


US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. 
Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.
SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.


[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and US Equities, the S&amp;P 500 Index should collapse to 3,533 after the disappointing ISM reading of 46.7.</li>
<li>Our ISM - Implied Returns analysis reveals that even if the ISM Manufacturing recovers to above 50 in the coming months, there is no upside for US and Global Equities.</li>
<li>Finally, in each of the three ISM Manufacturing scenarios, there is upside for US Treasuries. The ISM Manufacturing Index is very clear on asset allocation: Bonds over Stocks, big time.</li>
</ul>


Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and US Equities, the S&amp;P 500 Index should collapse to 3,533 after the disappointing ISM reading of 46.7.
Our ISM - Implied Returns analysis reveals that even if the ISM Manufacturing recovers to above 50 in the coming months, there is no upside for US and Global Equities.
Finally, in each of the three ISM Manufacturing scenarios, there is upside for US Treasuries. The ISM Manufacturing Index is very clear on asset allocation: Bonds over Stocks, big time.


OUCH! The Slump in the ISM Manufacturing Suggests 20% Downside for Equities

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was...

Steno Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended November 10, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 2.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.8%).