Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the economist consensus has been continuously on the bearish side of actual outcomes, outside of the one we have just been through.</li>
<li>From a soft landing to a hard landing to NO landing.</li>
<li>That has been the pattern for economic projections both in Q4-2022 and Q1 to Q4-2023.</li>
</ul>


The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the economist consensus has been continuously on the bearish side of actual outcomes, outside of the one we have just been through.
From a soft landing to a hard landing to NO landing.
That has been the pattern for economic projections both in Q4-2022 and Q1 to Q4-2023.


Steno Signals #62 – The Recession Is Called Off (By Consensus)

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We scrutinize market dynamics following the blowout earnings report of the world’s hottest stock, NVIDIA. Something definitely changed.</li>
<li>Incoming PMI data from the Eurozone seriously questions the ‘soft landing narrative,’ which we think should force the end of the global central bank tightening cycle. </li>
<li>China’s economic woes continue to grow, and the focus has now shifted to ending the stellar depreciation of the Yuan.</li>
</ul>


We scrutinize market dynamics following the blowout earnings report of the world’s hottest stock, NVIDIA. Something definitely changed.
Incoming PMI data from the Eurozone seriously questions the ‘soft landing narrative,’ which we think should force the end of the global central bank tightening cycle. 
China’s economic woes continue to grow, and the focus has now shifted to ending the stellar depreciation of the Yuan.


The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …

<ul>
<li>The recent rise in interest rates is leading to a further shift in cross-asset valuation.</li>
<li>The volatility-adjusted yields of equity-related asset classes have become even less attractive than those of bond-related asset classes.</li>
<li>The case for bond investments becomes even stronger when considering that the correlation between equity and bond returns is remarkably high, diminishing diversification benefits.</li>
</ul>


The recent rise in interest rates is leading to a further shift in cross-asset valuation.
The volatility-adjusted yields of equity-related asset classes have become even less attractive than those of bond-related asset classes.
The case for bond investments becomes even stronger when considering that the correlation between equity and bond returns is remarkably high, diminishing diversification benefits.


Risk-Adjusted Yields and High Correlation Make Equities Unattractive!

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.</li>
<li>ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.</li>
<li>The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. </li>
</ul>


'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.
ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.
The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. 


'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).</li><li>Energy Technology (14.7% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 7.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 2.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 6.8%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: LYTS, EOSE, PE, RIDE, PGTK, BWEN, ORGN, SOLO, TGEN, ADSE</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).Energy Technology (14.7% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 7.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 2.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 6.8%.Top 10 Performers: LYTS, EOSE, PE, RIDE, PGTK, BWEN, ORGN, SOLO, TGEN, ADSE

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended August 18, 2023

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Steno Signals #62 – The Recession Is Called Off (By Consensus)

The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …

Market reaction to lower-than-expected US inflation numbers and blowout NVIDIA earnings is different from what is used to be. Three strikes and out?

Jeroen Blokland

Risk-Adjusted Yields and High Correlation Make Equities Unattractive!

Volatility-adjusted yields are much lower for equity-like asset classes than for bond-like asset classes, which does not bode well when correlation...

Jeroen Blokland

'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

US averts recession before Q4CY23, as Bidenomics is buoying investment. Strong USD helped in H1 but will be a drag in H2CY23. Fiscal spending reins...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended August 18, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.8% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down...

Water Tower Research