Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”.</li><li>Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment is turning worse on both inflation -and liquidity metrics, while the growth variable remains positive (measured by the cyclical manufacturing momentum).</li><li>This leaves us in a classic “QT” environment with less obvious “gung ho” risk taking through April compared to the full-on risk positive environment we have seen over the past 4-5 months as continuously flagged and traded via our allocation tools.”Without the growth parameter being a home-run in our models, we mostly got the April correction right and also capitalized decently well on the liquidity withdrawal and the hot inflation report.</li></ul>

Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”.Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment is turning worse on both inflation -and liquidity metrics, while the growth variable remains positive (measured by the cyclical manufacturing momentum).This leaves us in a classic “QT” environment with less obvious “gung ho” risk taking through April compared to the full-on risk positive environment we have seen over the past 4-5 months as continuously flagged and traded via our allocation tools.”Without the growth parameter being a home-run in our models, we mostly got the April correction right and also capitalized decently well on the liquidity withdrawal and the hot inflation report.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise format.</li><li>Enjoy!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro:  <ul><li>Further tailwinds for risk assets?</li><li>A hot CPI report in the cards next week</li><li>More liquidity for markets ahead</li><li>UK Assets are looking increasingly interesting</li><li>Overall dollar weakness, but not against Asian FX?</li></ul></li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise format.Enjoy!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro:  Further tailwinds for risk assets?A hot CPI report in the cards next weekMore liquidity for markets aheadUK Assets are looking increasingly interestingOverall dollar weakness, but not against Asian FX?

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pioneer-natural-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10341:1" rel="noopener">Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistra-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27958:1" rel="noopener">Vistra (VST US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 7 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US)</a> stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marathon-digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33244:1" rel="noopener">Marathon Digital Holdings</a> stock price to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bitcoin-usd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1" rel="noopener">Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)</a> is near the lows.</li>
</ul>


Following Exxon Mobil (XOM US)'s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Vistra (VST US) will be added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 7 May.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) is an add to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings stock price to Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) is near the lows.


S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes.</li>
<li>No surprises at the Fed meeting and relief at no hint of rate hikes despite the data</li>
<li>Prices Paid in the ISM predicting an uptick in CPI</li>
</ul>


A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes.
No surprises at the Fed meeting and relief at no hint of rate hikes despite the data
Prices Paid in the ISM predicting an uptick in CPI


Overview #3 -The Good, the Bad, and the Bank of Japan

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.</li>
<li>April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.</li>
</ul>


US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.
April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.
Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.


Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Macro Regime Indicator May – UP UP UP!

Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”. Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise...

Steno Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

ExxonMobil's acquisition will lead to Vistra being added to the SPX. Marathon Digital is an inclusion to the SmallCap 600 index and there could be...

Brian Freitas

Overview #3 -The Good, the Bad, and the Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan continues to tinker around the edges, not impacting the JPY's primary trend, while the Federal Reserve continues to run an easy...

Rikki Malik

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

Macro Regime Indicator May – UP UP UP!

Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”. Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise...

Steno Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

ExxonMobil's acquisition will lead to Vistra being added to the SPX. Marathon Digital is an inclusion to the SmallCap 600 index and there could be...

Brian Freitas

Overview #3 -The Good, the Bad, and the Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan continues to tinker around the edges, not impacting the JPY's primary trend, while the Federal Reserve continues to run an easy...

Rikki Malik

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

​US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...