Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Is the US Labor Market Signaling a Recession?

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.</li>
<li>We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. </li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.
We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. 
Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. 


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated