Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Morning from Copenhagen, I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once after the big announcements we made last week.</li><li>As a result, Steno Signals was released this Monday morning instead.</li><li>The recent repricing of EUR rates versus peers is extremely interesting, as the ECB is suddenly considered the only G3 central bank with a feasible path to 50bp cuts.</li></ul>

Morning from Copenhagen, I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once after the big announcements we made last week.As a result, Steno Signals was released this Monday morning instead.The recent repricing of EUR rates versus peers is extremely interesting, as the ECB is suddenly considered the only G3 central bank with a feasible path to 50bp cuts.

Steno Signals #122 – Markets have abandoned the cutting narrative (outside of EZ)

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Trump has pulled ahead in the swing states according to all 3 main poll trackers (RCP, fivethirtyeight and FT), with all now suggesting a Trump win in the electoral college. </li>
<li>WI, MI, NE and PA remain tight races, but the other 3 are in Trump's bag. With Trump ahead in PA and WI, Harris' only route out is reversing these. </li>
<li>History suggests that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). With prices now 25% higher than in Jan'21, swing voters blame incumbent Harris. </li>
</ul>


Trump has pulled ahead in the swing states according to all 3 main poll trackers (RCP, fivethirtyeight and FT), with all now suggesting a Trump win in the electoral college. 
WI, MI, NE and PA remain tight races, but the other 3 are in Trump's bag. With Trump ahead in PA and WI, Harris' only route out is reversing these. 
History suggests that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). With prices now 25% higher than in Jan'21, swing voters blame incumbent Harris. 


US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Precious Metals and the associated equities have been a high-conviction investment idea for us in 2024</li>
<li>Gold is up 32% YTD and a representative index of gold miners is up 39%</li>
<li>Should we take the money and run? Is it over?</li>
</ul>


Precious Metals and the associated equities have been a high-conviction investment idea for us in 2024
Gold is up 32% YTD and a representative index of gold miners is up 39%
Should we take the money and run? Is it over?


As Good as Gold – Take the Money and Run?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies’ revenue is expected to fall 9.1% QoQ and 17.8% YoY in Q3, while its EPS is expected to rise 6.6% QoQ but fall 19.8% YoY. </li>
<li>TotalEnergies anticipates a decline in downstream profitability due to a 65.7% QoQ drop in European refining margins, though increased gas prices are expected to partially offset lower oil prices.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies raised its annual oil and gas output growth forecast to 3% through 2030. Targets natural gas to comprise 50% of its total sales mix by 2030.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies’ revenue is expected to fall 9.1% QoQ and 17.8% YoY in Q3, while its EPS is expected to rise 6.6% QoQ but fall 19.8% YoY. 
TotalEnergies anticipates a decline in downstream profitability due to a 65.7% QoQ drop in European refining margins, though increased gas prices are expected to partially offset lower oil prices.
TotalEnergies raised its annual oil and gas output growth forecast to 3% through 2030. Targets natural gas to comprise 50% of its total sales mix by 2030.


[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.</li>
<li>National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.</li>
<li>The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.
National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.
The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.


EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Steno Signals #122 – Markets have abandoned the cutting narrative (outside of EZ)

Morning from Copenhagen,I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once...

Steno Research

US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Prasenjit K. Basu

As Good as Gold – Take the Money and Run?

2024 has been a strong year for precious metals and associated equities, with gold up 32% YTD and gold miners up 39%. The question now is whether...

Rikki Malik

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

TotalEnergies' revenue and EPS are expected to decline YoY due to weak crude oil prices in Q3. The firm’s long-term growth prospects are strong...

Mint Finance

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

Steno Signals #122 – Markets have abandoned the cutting narrative (outside of EZ)

Morning from Copenhagen,I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once...

Steno Research

US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

​History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Prasenjit K. Basu

As Good as Gold – Take the Money and Run?

​2024 has been a strong year for precious metals and associated equities, with gold up 32% YTD and gold miners up 39%. The question now is whether...

Rikki Malik

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

TotalEnergies' revenue and EPS are expected to decline YoY due to weak crude oil prices in Q3. The firm’s long-term growth prospects are strong...

Mint Finance

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

​Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

2024 has been a strong year for precious metals and associated equities, with gold up 32% YTD and gold miners up 39%. The question now is whether...

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.