Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge. </li>
<li>These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;</li>
<li>We see J&amp;T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade...</li>
</ul>


Ex-China e-commerce conducted by Chinese e-commerce platform will rise from 2022 GMV of US$ 61bn to US$ 297bn in 2025, with Pinduoduo, Alibaba, SHEIN and TikTok leading the charge. 
These companies, however, are incubating their own last mile partners. The political uncertainty of Chinese e-commerce overseas is hindering development of the industry;
We see J&amp;T as the main beneficiary of Chinese e-commerce overseas, which must eventually undergo an infrastructure upgrade...


[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.</li>
<li>Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.</li>
<li>ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.</li>
</ul>


PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.
Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.
ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.


China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>PDD reported C3Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit 9%, (4%) and in-line vs. our estimate, and 28%, 29%, and 42%, vs. consensus respectively.</li>
<li>We estimate that Temu reached positive gross profit for the first time in 3Q, one quarter ahead of our prior estimate.</li>
<li>We believe increased prices on its US platform was the main driver, while it was able to maintain supply prices.</li>
</ul>


PDD reported C3Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit 9%, (4%) and in-line vs. our estimate, and 28%, 29%, and 42%, vs. consensus respectively.
We estimate that Temu reached positive gross profit for the first time in 3Q, one quarter ahead of our prior estimate.
We believe increased prices on its US platform was the main driver, while it was able to maintain supply prices.


[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$165) TP Change]: PDD and Temu Growth Tailwinds Will Continue

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Stock rally on strong revenue growth suggests TEMU will be at center stage of the investment thesis for PDD down the road. </li>
<li>Besides soaring GMV, TEMU achieved blowout performance likely due to much higher-than-expected take-rate and disciplined marketing, resulting in narrower-than-expected losses.</li>
<li>We expect the company's growth will even accelerate in 4Q23 and generate adjusted net profit of US$12 bn for FY24, with a target market cap of US$240 bn (20xPE).</li>
</ul>


Stock rally on strong revenue growth suggests TEMU will be at center stage of the investment thesis for PDD down the road. 
Besides soaring GMV, TEMU achieved blowout performance likely due to much higher-than-expected take-rate and disciplined marketing, resulting in narrower-than-expected losses.
We expect the company's growth will even accelerate in 4Q23 and generate adjusted net profit of US$12 bn for FY24, with a target market cap of US$240 bn (20xPE).


China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;</li>
<li>We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;</li>
<li>JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;
We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;
JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.


Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

[Blue Lotus Logistics Sector Update]: Overseas E-Commerce Brews New Logistics Players

Chinese e-commerce giants like Alibaba and Pinduoduo are expected to see a significant rise in overseas e-commerce, but political uncertainty is...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s. Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe. ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy.

Ming Lu