Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US</li>
<li>Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment</li>
<li>The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com</li>
</ul>


Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment
The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com


In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tal-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1124:1" rel="noopener">TAL Education</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR</a> are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.</li>
</ul>


We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK). 
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.

PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.


What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>PDD Holdings, Inc. presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year of 2024, showcasing a strategy focused on high-quality development and ecosystem advancement.</li><li>The company reported stable financial performance in the last quarter, closing with a revenue increase to RMB 110.6 billion, a 24% year-over year gain.</li><li>For the entire year, revenues climbed 59% to a total of RMB 393.8 billion, marking a moderation from previous growth rates.</li></ul>

PDD Holdings, Inc. presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year of 2024, showcasing a strategy focused on high-quality development and ecosystem advancement.The company reported stable financial performance in the last quarter, closing with a revenue increase to RMB 110.6 billion, a 24% year-over year gain.For the entire year, revenues climbed 59% to a total of RMB 393.8 billion, marking a moderation from previous growth rates.

Is PDD the Silent Giant That Could Crush Alibaba? Here’s What the Data Says!

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>PDD reported C4Q24 top line 1.1%/(6.1%) vs. our est./cons. and non-GAAP operating income (5.4%)/(5.6%) vs. est./cons., </li>
<li>PDD rose to prominence by optimizing the value chain built/inherited by Alibaba/eBay in China and Amazon/eBay in US. </li>
<li>As these two “bonuses” coming to an end, PDD must build its own. While growth shall normalize, China low tier cities and global developing markets shall sustain its growth. </li>
</ul>


PDD reported C4Q24 top line 1.1%/(6.1%) vs. our est./cons. and non-GAAP operating income (5.4%)/(5.6%) vs. est./cons., 
PDD rose to prominence by optimizing the value chain built/inherited by Alibaba/eBay in China and Amazon/eBay in US. 
As these two “bonuses” coming to an end, PDD must build its own. While growth shall normalize, China low tier cities and global developing markets shall sustain its growth. 


[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PDD’s total revenue grew by 24% YoY in 4Q24, with advertising up by 17% YoY and commission up by 33% YoY.</li>
<li>The gross margin declined YoY, but we still believe PDD has advantage in the low price market.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 71% and a price target of US$215 for the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


PDD’s total revenue grew by 24% YoY in 4Q24, with advertising up by 17% YoY and commission up by 33% YoY.
The gross margin declined YoY, but we still believe PDD has advantage in the low price market.
We conclude an upside of 71% and a price target of US$215 for the next twelve months.


Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q24, Not Slowdown, Still Advantage in Low Price Market, 70% Upside

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

In the US, Pinduoduo's Temu platform has made sudden, dramatic changes to its business model. The changes could bring Temu into direct competition...

Tracking Traffic

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

The escalating tariff wars have increased calls in the U.S for Chinese companies to be delisted. While there have been few mentions of an...

Brian Freitas

Is PDD the Silent Giant That Could Crush Alibaba? Here’s What the Data Says!

PDD Holdings, Inc. presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year of 2024, showcasing a strategy focused on...

Baptista Research

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US

PDD's top line and operating income fall short of expectations as it transitions from optimizing existing value chains to building

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q24, Not Slowdown, Still Advantage in Low Price Market, 70% Upside

PDD’s total revenue grew by 24% YoY in 4Q24. The gross margin declined YoY, but we still believe PDD has advantage in the low price market. We...

Ming Lu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

In the US, Pinduoduo's Temu platform has made sudden, dramatic changes to its business model. The changes could bring Temu into direct competition...

Tracking Traffic

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

The escalating tariff wars have increased calls in the U.S for Chinese companies to be delisted. While there have been few mentions of an...

Brian Freitas

Is PDD the Silent Giant That Could Crush Alibaba? Here’s What the Data Says!

PDD Holdings, Inc. presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year of 2024, showcasing a strategy focused on...

Baptista Research

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US

​PDD's top line and operating income fall short of expectations as it transitions from optimizing existing value chains to building

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q24, Not Slowdown, Still Advantage in Low Price Market, 70% Upside

PDD’s total revenue grew by 24% YoY in 4Q24. The gross margin declined YoY, but we still believe PDD has advantage in the low price market. We...

Ming Lu

PDD's top line and operating income fall short of expectations as it transitions from optimizing existing value chains to building