Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Originally, the MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> was expected to get launched end-January 2024. A late-ish filing with regard to the EU's Foreign Subsidies Regulation regime <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/2427/tdnet/2386679/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prompted</a> a delay.</li>
<li>Yesterday Outsourcing <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/2427/tdnet/2396485/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a delay its earnings release by 3 business days, the delay "procedures related to impairment losses are continuing."</li>
<li>Outsourcing shares are down hard on this. -1.5% as I write. I examine.</li>
</ul>


Originally, the MBO for Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) was expected to get launched end-January 2024. A late-ish filing with regard to the EU's Foreign Subsidies Regulation regime prompted a delay.
Yesterday Outsourcing announced a delay its earnings release by 3 business days, the delay "procedures related to impairment losses are continuing."
Outsourcing shares are down hard on this. -1.5% as I write. I examine.


Outsourcing (2427) - Earnings Delay Causes Consternation

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: The all-scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qv-equities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24284:1" rel="noopener">QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wam-leaders-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24274:1" rel="noopener">WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benesse-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12877:1" rel="noopener">Benesse Holdings (9783 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glosel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18515:1" rel="noopener">Glosel (9995 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: The all-scrip Offer for QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU) from WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU).
Key updates took place on: Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Benesse Holdings (9783 JP), Glosel (9995 JP) and Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: QV Equities, Orecorp, Benesse, Glosel, Outsourcing

<ul>
<li>On 31 January 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> put out a notice to the Exchange regarding progress towards Execution of the Tender Offer by Bain.</li>
<li>All preconditions for the commencement of the Tender Offer except for the acquisition of clearance of EU Regulations on foreign subsidies affecting the EU market. </li>
<li>This process appears to be "as expected" given Outsourcing's multinational presence and the new Foreign Subsidies Regulation which went into effect in the EU 28 weeks ago.</li>
</ul>


On 31 January 2024, Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) put out a notice to the Exchange regarding progress towards Execution of the Tender Offer by Bain.
All preconditions for the commencement of the Tender Offer except for the acquisition of clearance of EU Regulations on foreign subsidies affecting the EU market. 
This process appears to be "as expected" given Outsourcing's multinational presence and the new Foreign Subsidies Regulation which went into effect in the EU 28 weeks ago.


Outsourcing (2427) MBO Start Delayed A Month - Large Float So Eminently Bumpable But...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Bain has delayed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> tender start from late January due to more time required to satisfy the European regulatory approval pre-condition.</li>
<li>Potential reasons for bumping are opportunistic timing, re-rating of Japanese peers, a high minority acceptance rate, and an offer below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>Potential reasons for keeping terms unchanged are no activists, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed price, and an offer still attractive compared to Japanese peers’ multiples and price ratios.  </li>
</ul>


Bain has delayed the Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) tender start from late January due to more time required to satisfy the European regulatory approval pre-condition.
Potential reasons for bumping are opportunistic timing, re-rating of Japanese peers, a high minority acceptance rate, and an offer below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Potential reasons for keeping terms unchanged are no activists, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed price, and an offer still attractive compared to Japanese peers’ multiples and price ratios.  


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Tender Start Delayed, but Does Bain Need to Bump?

<ul>
<li>On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.</li>
<li>It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. </li>
<li>This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.
It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. 
This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.


Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

Japan

OUTSOURCING Inc. provides outsourcing services for manufacturing companies. The Company mainly provides services for industries such as food, electric equipment, transport machine, chemical, and metal.  Outsourcing also provides worker dispatching service.

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Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)

Outsourcing (2427) - Earnings Delay Causes Consternation

Outsourcing (2427) delay in reporting earnings means uncertainty. Stock falls early, and rebounds. Still down. This may or may not be big. It may...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: QV Equities, Orecorp, Benesse, Glosel, Outsourcing

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Outsourcing (2427) MBO Start Delayed A Month - Large Float So Eminently Bumpable But...

The Outsourcing MBO Tender Offer launch start is delayed a month on EU FSR filing. The market took it in stride. This remains eminently bumpable...

Travis Lundy

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Tender Start Delayed, but Does Bain Need to Bump?

Barring the emergence of an activist, Bain will likely keep the offer unchanged. The risk/reward profile is unattractive as the downside (estimated...

Arun George

Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

MBO for Outsourcing is a nice premium at 51% but it should easily have been done 20-40% higher than where it was priced. High-growth leading player...

Travis Lundy

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