Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today saw the publication of three different articles regarding the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> approach and offer to purchase all the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> </li>
<li>The first in the Nikkei said ATD could push offer a high price, even up to ¥8 trillion. The second mentioned debt financing being feasible because of prodigious cash flow.</li>
<li>The third in Bloomberg noted that 7&amp;i had requested the government upgrade its FEFTA status to "core", which would lead to a more burdensome/restrictive government approval process.</li>
</ul>


Today saw the publication of three different articles regarding the Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) approach and offer to purchase all the shares of Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) 
The first in the Nikkei said ATD could push offer a high price, even up to ¥8 trillion. The second mentioned debt financing being feasible because of prodigious cash flow.
The third in Bloomberg noted that 7&amp;i had requested the government upgrade its FEFTA status to "core", which would lead to a more burdensome/restrictive government approval process.


Updates on The Couche-Tard Deal for 7&I (3382 JP)

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, the <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/ir_material4/227807/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a> of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> Tender Offer were announced. Bidco JICC-02 obtained 84.36% of the shares out in the Tender Offer. </li>
<li>That means imminent index downweights, delayed index downweights, and theoretically another selldown on the last day of listed existence. </li>
<li>News which came up since the start of the Tender Offer make this a little more difficult than it might have otherwise been. </li>
</ul>


Today after the close, the results of the JSR Corp (4185 JP) Tender Offer were announced. Bidco JICC-02 obtained 84.36% of the shares out in the Tender Offer. 
That means imminent index downweights, delayed index downweights, and theoretically another selldown on the last day of listed existence. 
News which came up since the start of the Tender Offer make this a little more difficult than it might have otherwise been. 


JSR (4185) - Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>'s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.</li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP)'s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines.

Samsonite (1910 HK)'s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.

Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

Japan

OUTSOURCING Inc. provides outsourcing services for manufacturing companies. The Company mainly provides services for industries such as food, electric equipment, transport machine, chemical, and metal.  Outsourcing also provides worker dispatching service.

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Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)

Updates on The Couche-Tard Deal for 7&I (3382 JP)

The ATD deal for 3382 will be long-dated. It will take months, not weeks. Effectively, both parties want 3382's share price higher. If higher,...

Travis Lundy

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

JSR (4185) - Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters

The JIC deal for JSR is now done. Tendered total came in higher than I expected. I think that warrants a bit of care on the part of those who might...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

For the month of March, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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