Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourist arrivals in Japan. </li>
<li>It is trading at 0.04 PEG, a very low valuation considering its potential for producing large growth rate. </li>
</ul>


The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. 

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourist arrivals in Japan. 
It is trading at 0.04 PEG, a very low valuation considering its potential for producing large growth rate. 


Keisei Electric (9009): The Chinese Are Back.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY)</a> September rebalance ended yesterday. There should be three index changes, potential stepwise inclusion, no <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a> capping and a big funding trade.</li>
<li>There appears to be decent positioning on the potential adds, while it is the close adds that are spiking along with a big increase in traded volumes.</li>
<li>If the three changes are on expected lines, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.01% resulting in a one-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn). </li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY) September rebalance ended yesterday. There should be three index changes, potential stepwise inclusion, no Fast Retailing capping and a big funding trade.
There appears to be decent positioning on the potential adds, while it is the close adds that are spiking along with a big increase in traded volumes.
If the three changes are on expected lines, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.01% resulting in a one-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn). 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Final Look as Review Period Ends

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s price performance.</li>
<li>The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.</li>
<li>Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s price performance.
The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.
Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.


Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -0.8% on Friday, -1.8%WoW as recession fears resurface post -ve EU PMI, amidst rate hikes to combat inflation; Carmax +10% on earnings beat, but used car px falling</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 reflecting disparity between Japan rates vs Global; Yet JP inflation remains elevated; JIC ¥1trn bid for JSR(4183); Oriental Land hikes px-es</li>
<li>NUGGET. Cosmo Energy(5021) - set back for Japan corporate governance. The Fourth Estate - Your turn.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -0.8% on Friday, -1.8%WoW as recession fears resurface post -ve EU PMI, amidst rate hikes to combat inflation; Carmax +10% on earnings beat, but used car px falling
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 reflecting disparity between Japan rates vs Global; Yet JP inflation remains elevated; JIC ¥1trn bid for JSR(4183); Oriental Land hikes px-es
NUGGET. Cosmo Energy(5021) - set back for Japan corporate governance. The Fourth Estate - Your turn.


Ohayo Japan|Correction Mode as Recession Fears Reassert; NUGGET: Cosmo Energy (5021) - SHAME ON YOU

Japan

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. operates a hamburger fast food restaurant chain throughout Japan.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores.

ZENSHO Holdings CO., LTD. operates a fast food chain specialized in GYUDON which serves bowls of rice topped with seasoned beef based in Kanto.      The Company operates also diversifying into other types of food chains such as "Coco's" and "Big Boy" in Japan.

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

RESORTTRUST, INC. plans, develops, markets, and operates timeshare resort hotels under the "XIV" and "SUN MEMBERS" brand name.  The Company's resort facilities are located in the suburb of major Japanese cities.  Resorttrust operates golf courses.

ROUND ONE Corporation operates bowling alleys and video game arcades.  The Company operates primarily in the Osaka area.

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation operates a variety of restaurants such as skewered grill chicken, Japanese noodle, ramen noodle, Japanese-style pancake, and pasta restaurants.  The Company operates its business at food courts in shopping centers, stations, highway rest areas, and suburbs.

create restaurants holdings inc. operates direct-run Western, Chinese, and Japanese restaurants.  The Company also operates fast food restaurants.

create restaurants holdings inc. (3387 JP)

SAIZERIYA CO., LTD. operates an Italian restaurant chain based in the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company's menu includes pizza, pasta, seafood, and meat entrees.

KYORITSU MAINTENANCE CO., LTD operates student dormitories and dormitories for young businessmen throughout Japan.  The Company builds condominiums and dormitories.

Food & Life Companies Limited operates sushi restaurant chains. The Company operates kaiten sushi stores and restaurants, sushi takeout, sushi bars with snacks, and more. Food & Life Companies serves customers worldwide.

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. owns and operates quick serve Mexican restaurants. The Company manages restaurants throughout the United States.

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Indian Hotels Company Limited operates The Taj Group of hotels.  The Company owns or maintains long term leases/licenses for hotels in India, in addition to International hotels.  The Group's hotels are divided into three groups: Luxury, Business, and, Leisure.

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Keisei Electric (9009): The Chinese Are Back.

The moment of truth is here, the Chinese are finally coming back to Japan. Keisei is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourism in Japan.

Henry Soediarko

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Final Look as Review Period Ends

The review period for the NKY Sep rebal ended yesterday. There should be 3 index changes, potential stepwise inclusion, no Fast Retailing capping...

Brian Freitas

Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Keisei Electric's valuation has shown a notable deviation from Oriental Land's price performance, particularly since the announcement of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|Correction Mode as Recession Fears Reassert; NUGGET: Cosmo Energy (5021) - SHAME ON YOU

Stocks fall on recession fears/higher rates. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 JP inflation remains elevated - BOJ pickle ? JIC ¥1trn bid...

Mark Chadwick

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