Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lixil increased operating profit by 15.7% YoY, to ¥20.6bn, compared to consensus estimates for an 18% decline. The stock trades at 80% of book value.</li>
<li>TEPCO earned ¥112bn compared to a consensus forecast of a ¥3bn loss. It trades at 35% of book value.</li>
<li>Lasertec increased EBIT by 122% to ¥47.7bn compared to consensus estimates for ¥27bn, and the stock trading at the lowest multiples relative to Topix in seven years.  </li>
</ul>


Lixil increased operating profit by 15.7% YoY, to ¥20.6bn, compared to consensus estimates for an 18% decline. The stock trades at 80% of book value.
TEPCO earned ¥112bn compared to a consensus forecast of a ¥3bn loss. It trades at 35% of book value.
Lasertec increased EBIT by 122% to ¥47.7bn compared to consensus estimates for ¥27bn, and the stock trading at the lowest multiples relative to Topix in seven years.  


Unloved Japan Round-Up: Some Massive Results Surprises

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.</li><li>KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.</li><li>KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91</li></ul>

KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

<ul>
<li>After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. </li>
<li>But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth</li>
<li>The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.</li>
</ul>


After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. 
But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth
The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.


Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Long Lastertec after a solid set of numbers and the easing of concerns raised by the recent Scorpion Capital short sellers report.</li>
<li>Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US upcoming trade restriction announcement in September.</li>
<li>This was previously seen as a dangerous short due to its high outstanding short interest, although it has now unwound to almost zero.</li>
</ul>


Long Lastertec after a solid set of numbers and the easing of concerns raised by the recent Scorpion Capital short sellers report.
Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US upcoming trade restriction announcement in September.
This was previously seen as a dangerous short due to its high outstanding short interest, although it has now unwound to almost zero.


Long 6920 Lasertec Corp | Short 6525 Kokusai Electric

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Unloved Japan Round-Up: Some Massive Results Surprises

Lixil, TEPCO, and Lasertec all outperformed consensus estimates with strong operating profits and low stock valuations relative to book value and...

Michael Allen

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

Long 6920 Lasertec Corp | Short 6525 Kokusai Electric

Long Lasertech after a good set of numbers, Scorpion Capital concerns debunked; Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Unloved Japan Round-Up: Some Massive Results Surprises

​Lixil, TEPCO, and Lasertec all outperformed consensus estimates with strong operating profits and low stock valuations relative to book value and...

Michael Allen

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

​Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

Long 6920 Lasertec Corp | Short 6525 Kokusai Electric

Long Lasertech after a good set of numbers, Scorpion Capital concerns debunked; Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US...

Andrew Jackson

Lixil, TEPCO, and Lasertec all outperformed consensus estimates with strong operating profits and low stock valuations relative to book value and...

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...