HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Baosteel’s SOE background helps bring more advantages- This deal is a consolidation of assets under SASAC, which may involve some strategic intent at national level. Baosteel has an upper hand. </li>
<li>ORG cannot afford to fail considering the strategic significance of CMPC for ORG. Major shareholder of CPMC Zhang Wei has picked ORG side, making it maintain the hope of winning.</li>
<li>For arbitrageurs, the good news is CPMC would be acquired by either Changping Industrial or ORG, with high certainty.Baosteel is also worth watching since it could be a new leader. </li>
</ul>


Baosteel’s SOE background helps bring more advantages- This deal is a consolidation of assets under SASAC, which may involve some strategic intent at national level. Baosteel has an upper hand. 
ORG cannot afford to fail considering the strategic significance of CMPC for ORG. Major shareholder of CPMC Zhang Wei has picked ORG side, making it maintain the hope of winning.
For arbitrageurs, the good news is CPMC would be acquired by either Changping Industrial or ORG, with high certainty.Baosteel is also worth watching since it could be a new leader. 


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) - ORG Can't Afford to Lose, But Baosteel Is a Step Ahead

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With ORG offering a 4.9% higher price and securing Zhang Wei's acceptance, the ball is now back in Baowu's hands. Good reasons exist for Baowu to raise its offer price. </li>
<li>Baowu's subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-baosteel-packaging-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25102:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)</a> needs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> more than ORG, given its smaller market share and weaker profitability.</li>
<li>At ORG's offer price, CPMC's PERs for FY24 and FY25 of 15.4x and 14.2x are cheaper than Baosteel Packaging's 22x and 18.7x. This gives additional justifications for a higher offer. </li>
</ul>


With ORG offering a 4.9% higher price and securing Zhang Wei's acceptance, the ball is now back in Baowu's hands. Good reasons exist for Baowu to raise its offer price. 
Baowu's subsidiary Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH) needs CPMC Holdings (906 HK) more than ORG, given its smaller market share and weaker profitability.
At ORG's offer price, CPMC's PERs for FY24 and FY25 of 15.4x and 14.2x are cheaper than Baosteel Packaging's 22x and 18.7x. This gives additional justifications for a higher offer. 


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Will Baowu Raise the Offer Price After ORG?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagatanien-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8059:1" rel="noopener">Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qv-equities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24284:1" rel="noopener">QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Asia Cement China (743 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK).

Lowest spreads: Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (10 Jun) - GA Pack, Asia Cement, CPMC, Nagatanien, APM, Ansarada, Genex, Hollysys

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>After six months had elapsed, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>'s Offeror just needing SAMR/SAFE clearance before launching a firm bid, a competing Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology (002701 CH)</a> appeared unlikely. </li>
<li>Yet in a surprise move, ORG has made a pre-conditional (NDRC, SAFE, MoC, SAMR, and shareholder approval) Offer at HK$7.21/share, a 4.9% premium to the ongoing SASAC/NCSSF Offer. </li>
<li>ORG's pre-con Offer also has a 50% acceptance condition. ORG and concert parties have 24.43%. And Zhang Wei (22.01%) has given has an irrevocable. Directors have 0.87%. Intriguing situation. </li>
</ul>


After six months had elapsed, and CPMC Holdings (906 HK)'s Offeror just needing SAMR/SAFE clearance before launching a firm bid, a competing Offer from ORG Technology (002701 CH) appeared unlikely. 
Yet in a surprise move, ORG has made a pre-conditional (NDRC, SAFE, MoC, SAMR, and shareholder approval) Offer at HK$7.21/share, a 4.9% premium to the ongoing SASAC/NCSSF Offer. 
ORG's pre-con Offer also has a 50% acceptance condition. ORG and concert parties have 24.43%. And Zhang Wei (22.01%) has given has an irrevocable. Directors have 0.87%. Intriguing situation. 


Game On As ORG Lobs Competing Offer For CPMC (906 HK)

<ul>
<li>A new tool highlights which TSE companies have disclosed a policy/consideration; sometimes referred to as the "name and shame" list. In practice, more "name" than "shame". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is trading rich to its NAV. And the simple ratio (JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>) is the highest level outside the 2008 GFC. </li>
<li>This is a rubbish Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. Given how shareholders voted at last year's AGM, expect this Scheme to be voted down. Avoid.</li>
</ul>


A new tool highlights which TSE companies have disclosed a policy/consideration; sometimes referred to as the "name and shame" list. In practice, more "name" than "shame". 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is trading rich to its NAV. And the simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is the highest level outside the 2008 GFC. 
This is a rubbish Offer for Asia Cement China (743 HK). Given how shareholders voted at last year's AGM, expect this Scheme to be voted down. Avoid.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

China

ORG Technology Co., Ltd. develops, designs, manufactures and sells food and beverages metal packaging products. The Company's main products include food and beverage cans.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) - ORG Can't Afford to Lose, But Baosteel Is a Step Ahead

Baosteel's SOE background gives it an advantage in acquiring CPMC, while ORG offers a higher price and has major shareholder support in bid for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Will Baowu Raise the Offer Price After ORG?

Baowu has good reasons to raise the offer price as getting CPMC is of high value. Baosteel Packaging can enhance market share and profitability...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Jun) - GA Pack, Asia Cement, CPMC, Nagatanien, APM, Ansarada, Genex, Hollysys

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (121.3%), Hollysys (18.9%), Ansarada (11.6%), Asia Cement China (11.1%), GA Pack (10.4%),...

Arun George

Game On As ORG Lobs Competing Offer For CPMC (906 HK)

Expect SAMR/SAFE to sign off on only one Offer. They won't sign off SASAC/NCSSF's when ORG's bid is out there. Either SASAC/NCSSF fold their tent;...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) - ORG Can't Afford to Lose, But Baosteel Is a Step Ahead

​Baosteel's SOE background gives it an advantage in acquiring CPMC, while ORG offers a higher price and has major shareholder support in bid for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Will Baowu Raise the Offer Price After ORG?

​Baowu has good reasons to raise the offer price as getting CPMC is of high value. Baosteel Packaging can enhance market share and profitability...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Jun) - GA Pack, Asia Cement, CPMC, Nagatanien, APM, Ansarada, Genex, Hollysys

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (121.3%), Hollysys (18.9%), Ansarada (11.6%), Asia Cement China (11.1%), GA Pack (10.4%),...

Arun George

Game On As ORG Lobs Competing Offer For CPMC (906 HK)

Expect SAMR/SAFE to sign off on only one Offer. They won't sign off SASAC/NCSSF's when ORG's bid is out there. Either SASAC/NCSSF fold their tent;...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, "Name & Shame", Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Baosteel's SOE background gives it an advantage in acquiring CPMC, while ORG offers a higher price and has major shareholder support in bid for...

Baowu has good reasons to raise the offer price as getting CPMC is of high value. Baosteel Packaging can enhance market share and profitability...