Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> kept rising for the past few months but has stalled its advance since March. It may be about to pullback and lose some gains, in May.</li>
<li>The index is currently up 2 weeks in a row, not yet strongly overbought but our model say that from a time perspective it could start to pullback next week. </li>
<li>If the index does not start to pullback soon, it could rally for another 2-3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index kept rising for the past few months but has stalled its advance since March. It may be about to pullback and lose some gains, in May.
The index is currently up 2 weeks in a row, not yet strongly overbought but our model say that from a time perspective it could start to pullback next week. 
If the index does not start to pullback soon, it could rally for another 2-3 weeks.


EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>SEBI extends cross-margining discounts to correlated assets with different maturities - Dispersion trading &amp; vol arb strategies to benefit. </li>
<li>In spite of upcoming tier-1 event risks the vol surface has flattened  dramatically. Current IV levels are supportive of a continued "High &amp; Down" vol state.</li>
<li>Curve steepening seen in Nifty50 IVs. Unusual kinked-shaped in BankNifty term structure has normalized - vol curve now has a uniform orientation.</li>
</ul>


SEBI extends cross-margining discounts to correlated assets with different maturities - Dispersion trading &amp; vol arb strategies to benefit. 
In spite of upcoming tier-1 event risks the vol surface has flattened  dramatically. Current IV levels are supportive of a continued "High &amp; Down" vol state.
Curve steepening seen in Nifty50 IVs. Unusual kinked-shaped in BankNifty term structure has normalized - vol curve now has a uniform orientation.


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

<ul>
<li>Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying &amp; increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.</li>
<li>Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode - yet.</li>
<li>BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual "kink-in-the-curve". Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.</li>
</ul>


Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying &amp; increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.
Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode - yet.
BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual "kink-in-the-curve". Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

<ul>
<li>Downtrend in IVs stall as market sentiment deteriorates. Vol Regime Model sticks to "High &amp; Down" state.</li>
<li>Consider Equity Tail hedges/ buying OTM puts in current environment. Roll strikes lower if/when equities weaken further.</li>
<li>Skew compression seen in BankNifty options as preference for out-of-money puts wane. Skew selling an unsuitable strategy at current levels.</li>
</ul>


Downtrend in IVs stall as market sentiment deteriorates. Vol Regime Model sticks to "High &amp; Down" state.
Consider Equity Tail hedges/ buying OTM puts in current environment. Roll strikes lower if/when equities weaken further.
Skew compression seen in BankNifty options as preference for out-of-money puts wane. Skew selling an unsuitable strategy at current levels.


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 08-Apr-24 to 12-Apr-24

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

The NIFTY Index's rally has stalled: a pullback may be about to begin and could lead the index down in May. The alternative scenario would be a...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

Dispersion trading/ Vol arb to get a boost from new margin rules. Nifty50 vol surface flattens in-spite of major event risk & term structure...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

FII option-buying and geopolitical events driving IVs higher. Skew/ Smile reflect heightened risk aversion but not in panic mode - yet. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 08-Apr-24 to 12-Apr-24

IV downtrend stalls as market sentiment deteriorates late-week. Equity tail hedges recommended, roll strikes lower as/when equities selloff....

AceGama Advisors

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

There could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap150 Index in Sep. Apart from the passive trackers, there are huge active funds tracking the index....

Brian Freitas

EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

The NIFTY Index's rally has stalled: a pullback may be about to begin and could lead the index down in May. The alternative scenario would be a...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

Dispersion trading/ Vol arb to get a boost from new margin rules. Nifty50 vol surface flattens in-spite of major event risk & term structure...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

​FII option-buying and geopolitical events driving IVs higher. Skew/ Smile reflect heightened risk aversion but not in panic mode - yet. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 08-Apr-24 to 12-Apr-24

​IV downtrend stalls as market sentiment deteriorates late-week. Equity tail hedges recommended, roll strikes lower as/when equities selloff....

AceGama Advisors

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

There could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap150 Index in Sep. Apart from the passive trackers, there are huge active funds tracking the index....

Brian Freitas

FII option-buying and geopolitical events driving IVs higher. Skew/ Smile reflect heightened risk aversion but not in panic mode - yet. BankNifty...

IV downtrend stalls as market sentiment deteriorates late-week. Equity tail hedges recommended, roll strikes lower as/when equities selloff....