Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Analysis of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100</a> stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nasdaq-100-ndx-and-trump-s-tariffs-war-how-to-read-our-insights-models-during-a-bear-market-crash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As explained in this insight</a>, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. </li>
<li>What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. </li>
</ul>


Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&amp;P/ASX 200, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout? 

As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can't predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes. 
What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal. 


Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>SEBI intervenes on constantly changing Option contract specifications. NSE halts expiry day shift indefinitely &amp; awaits clarity from regulator. </li>
<li>IVs slid lower to 11% levels - extended weekend being a primary factor. Risk premia is nearing historically low extremes. "Low &amp; Down" state persists for the Vol-Regime model.</li>
<li>Tactical Implications: (1) Scale back Vol harvesting structures as "Low &amp; Down" Vol-state persists. (2) Reverse Calendars for long gamma exposure to upcoming events. Utilize Low IVs &amp; curve Contango.</li>
</ul>


SEBI intervenes on constantly changing Option contract specifications. NSE halts expiry day shift indefinitely &amp; awaits clarity from regulator. 
IVs slid lower to 11% levels - extended weekend being a primary factor. Risk premia is nearing historically low extremes. "Low &amp; Down" state persists for the Vol-Regime model.
Tactical Implications: (1) Scale back Vol harvesting structures as "Low &amp; Down" Vol-state persists. (2) Reverse Calendars for long gamma exposure to upcoming events. Utilize Low IVs &amp; curve Contango.


NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.</li>
<li>Implied vol remained stable, and we discuss why it may be sticky at current levels.</li>
<li>With global weakness and the upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement, we reiterate a tactical hedge.</li>
</ul>


Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.
Implied vol remained stable, and we discuss why it may be sticky at current levels.
With global weakness and the upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement, we reiterate a tactical hedge.


Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> had rallied quite hard the week before last week, then stalled last week, however its looks like maybe is changing in its trend structure, maybe a breakout...</li>
<li>However the breakout may have to wait a bit more, as the NIFTY is overbought WEEKLY according to our model: before the uptrend resumes, there will be a pullback.</li>
<li>Last: as written by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/acegama-advisors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:30807" rel="noopener">AceGama Advisors</a> the WEEKLY options expiry will be moved from Thursday to Monday, starting in April 2025, impacting the market. Read their insight for detailed analysis.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index had rallied quite hard the week before last week, then stalled last week, however its looks like maybe is changing in its trend structure, maybe a breakout...
However the breakout may have to wait a bit more, as the NIFTY is overbought WEEKLY according to our model: before the uptrend resumes, there will be a pullback.
Last: as written by AceGama Advisors the WEEKLY options expiry will be moved from Thursday to Monday, starting in April 2025, impacting the market. Read their insight for detailed analysis.


NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

<ul>
<li>Effective 05.04.2025, Expiry for Options will be moved from Thursday to Monday. Premiums still adjusting to retroactive implementation of the technical change.</li>
<li>Option markets shun additional risk premia on account of U.S. trade tensions - IVs remain subdued. Vol-state transitioned to "Low &amp; Down" &amp; term-structure pushed further into Contango.  </li>
<li>IVs were higher on the weekly open, but premiums decayed rapidly post U.S. Fed event risk. Skew has unwound its earlier compression.</li>
</ul>


Effective 05.04.2025, Expiry for Options will be moved from Thursday to Monday. Premiums still adjusting to retroactive implementation of the technical change.
Option markets shun additional risk premia on account of U.S. trade tensions - IVs remain subdued. Vol-state transitioned to "Low &amp; Down" &amp; term-structure pushed further into Contango.  
IVs were higher on the weekly open, but premiums decayed rapidly post U.S. Fed event risk. Skew has unwound its earlier compression.


NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Expiry Day Shifted to Mondays - Expect Major Changes in Vol Dynamics

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

IV & Event update: IVs marked back up to 13% as 02.04.2025 US Tariff deadline approaches. Risk sentiment has deteriorated in the 11th hour despite...

AceGama Advisors

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs

Weekly recap of volatility metrics and price trends, highlighting stable implied vol and reiterate a tactical hedge amid global weakness and...

John Ley

NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

The NIFTY is showing a potential breakout, possibly the start of an uptrend, but it is OVERBOUGHT: expect a pullback before a rally. Weekly...

Nico Rosti

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Expiry Day Shifted to Mondays - Expect Major Changes in Vol Dynamics

Starting 05.04.2025, Options Expiry will shift to Mondays, impacting premiums. Option markets ignore trade tensions- IVs low & Term-structure in...

AceGama Advisors

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of Major Global Stock Indices to Identify Potential Intermediate Bottoms: Where Could the First Bear Market Rallies Begin?

Nico Rosti

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

IV & Event update: IVs marked back up to 13% as 02.04.2025 US Tariff deadline approaches. Risk sentiment has deteriorated in the 11th hour despite...

AceGama Advisors

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs

​Weekly recap of volatility metrics and price trends, highlighting stable implied vol and reiterate a tactical hedge amid global weakness and...

John Ley

NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

The ​NIFTY is showing a potential breakout, possibly the start of an uptrend, but it is OVERBOUGHT: expect a pullback before a rally. Weekly...

Nico Rosti

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Expiry Day Shifted to Mondays - Expect Major Changes in Vol Dynamics

​Starting 05.04.2025, Options Expiry will shift to Mondays, impacting premiums. Option markets ignore trade tensions- IVs low & Term-structure in...

AceGama Advisors

Weekly recap of volatility metrics and price trends, highlighting stable implied vol and reiterate a tactical hedge amid global weakness and...

The NIFTY is showing a potential breakout, possibly the start of an uptrend, but it is OVERBOUGHT: expect a pullback before a rally. Weekly...

Starting 05.04.2025, Options Expiry will shift to Mondays, impacting premiums. Option markets ignore trade tensions- IVs low & Term-structure in...