Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025</li>
<li>Micron expects to become FCF positive in the second half of their fiscal 2024 and to have a record revenue year in their fiscal 2025. </li>
<li>Micron's is doing custom work on their HBM solutions. Customers are signing LTAs with defined pricing. This could easily spread to Micron's non-HBM products also. </li>
</ul>


HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025
Micron expects to become FCF positive in the second half of their fiscal 2024 and to have a record revenue year in their fiscal 2025. 
Micron's is doing custom work on their HBM solutions. Customers are signing LTAs with defined pricing. This could easily spread to Micron's non-HBM products also. 


Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call recently with ChipMOS management; the company continues to view 1Q24 as having been the bottom for the memory and display markets.</li>
<li>Memory customers are increasing utilization further. Since ChipMOS does not significantly serve the HBM DRAM market, this indicates that previously softer non-HBM memory segments are now showing improvement.</li>
<li>Display industry increasing utilization on expectation for 2H24 large display demand strength driven by sporting events such as the Paris Olympics. ChipMOS remains well below March highs, rate as Outperform.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call recently with ChipMOS management; the company continues to view 1Q24 as having been the bottom for the memory and display markets.
Memory customers are increasing utilization further. Since ChipMOS does not significantly serve the HBM DRAM market, this indicates that previously softer non-HBM memory segments are now showing improvement.
Display industry increasing utilization on expectation for 2H24 large display demand strength driven by sporting events such as the Paris Olympics. ChipMOS remains well below March highs, rate as Outperform.


TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY</li>
<li>ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment</li>
<li>First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..</li>
</ul>


Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY
ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment
First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..


Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, &amp; phones needs.</li>
<li>Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.</li>
<li>Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, &amp; phones needs.
Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.
Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.


Deep Dive Into Samsung's Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.</li>
<li>Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.</li>
<li>Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.
Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.
Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

Powertech Technology Inc. tests, packages, and assembles integrated circuits (ICS).  The Company's products and services include memory product test and various kinds of IC package services, such as thin small-outline package (TSOP) services.

Asmedia Technology Inc designs mulitmedia integrated control(IC) chip and high frequency mixed mode IC chip. The company's products inlcude high speed digit switch, nand flash controller and super speed USB controller.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

MA-COM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. provides high performance analog semiconductor solutions. The Company supplies semiconductors, active and passive components, and sub-assemblies for use in radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave applications. MA-COM Technology Solutions serves customers throughout the United States.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. operates in the business of researching, producing and selling of LED epitaxial wafers and wafers.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures discrete semiconductor devices. The Company's main products are High Voltage Diode, Silicon Rectifier Diode, Silicon Bridge Rectifier, MWO High Voltage Silicon Diode and special High Voltage Silicon Diode .

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

Micron's HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025, making it a record revenue year for the...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

Management sees 1Q24 as the bottom for memory and display markets, with clients increasing utilization. Expectation for stronger large display...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY. Q124 ASP increases for Micron,...

William Keating

Deep Dive Into Samsung's Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

Foundry segment's losses reduced, but still loss-making. Samsung's order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan rebounded strongly last week alongside Nvidia and U.S. tech. This week will be another major earnings week. Apple's edge AI for user privacy...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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