Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.</li>
<li>Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.</li>
<li>Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.</li>
</ul>


We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.
Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.
Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.


Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Data Centers -- Traditional Data Center Recovery Starting; In Addition to HBM Demand, SSD Memory Seeing Strength for AI Applications</li>
<li>PCs -- Upcycle to Accelerate "Late CY2024E", Driven by Windows 12 and End of Windows 10</li>
<li>Mobile Devices -- Moderate Growth in CY2024E; Potential for Smartphone Upgrade Cycle Acceleration</li>
</ul>


Data Centers -- Traditional Data Center Recovery Starting; In Addition to HBM Demand, SSD Memory Seeing Strength for AI Applications
PCs -- Upcycle to Accelerate "Late CY2024E", Driven by Windows 12 and End of Windows 10
Mobile Devices -- Moderate Growth in CY2024E; Potential for Smartphone Upgrade Cycle Acceleration


Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,865.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD7,730mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech, Wiwynn, Evergreen Marine, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech, TSMC, Chailease.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,865.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD7,730mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech, Wiwynn, Evergreen Marine, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech, TSMC, Chailease.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 </li>
<li>Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages</li>
<li>If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating</li>
</ul>


Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 
Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages
If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating


Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

<ul>
<li>Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.</li>
<li>Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.</li>
<li>Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.</li>
</ul>


Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.
Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.
Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.


Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

Powertech Technology Inc. tests, packages, and assembles integrated circuits (ICS).  The Company's products and services include memory product test and various kinds of IC package services, such as thin small-outline package (TSOP) services.

Asmedia Technology Inc designs mulitmedia integrated control(IC) chip and high frequency mixed mode IC chip. The company's products inlcude high speed digit switch, nand flash controller and super speed USB controller.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

MA-COM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. provides high performance analog semiconductor solutions. The Company supplies semiconductors, active and passive components, and sub-assemblies for use in radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave applications. MA-COM Technology Solutions serves customers throughout the United States.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. operates in the business of researching, producing and selling of LED epitaxial wafers and wafers.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures discrete semiconductor devices. The Company's main products are High Voltage Diode, Silicon Rectifier Diode, Silicon Bridge Rectifier, MWO High Voltage Silicon Diode and special High Voltage Silicon Diode .

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive

Discusses the recovery of traditional data centers, strength in SSD memory for AI applications, upcycle in PCs driven by Windows 12, and potential...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive

Discusses the recovery of traditional data centers, strength in SSD memory for AI applications, upcycle in PCs driven by Windows 12, and potential...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

​Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...