Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Delta Electronics Major Winner of Nvidia's Conference</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit </li>
</ul>


Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Delta Electronics Major Winner of Nvidia's Conference
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F
Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Raising TSMC Growth Target; Memory Rally

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

<ul>
<li>MSFT's new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.</li>
<li>MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.</li>
<li>We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.</li>
</ul>


MSFT's new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.
MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.
We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.


Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

<ul>
<li>Memory names have rallied strongly, with Nanya Tech outperforming since the start of November.</li>
<li>DRAM bottomed and NAND flash prices have jumped. Micron says that 2025E could be a record year for the Memory industry.</li>
<li>High valuations make near-term upside for Memory names uncertain. For Long/Shorts one can consider Long Micron vs. Short SK Hynix or Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.</li>
</ul>


Memory names have rallied strongly, with Nanya Tech outperforming since the start of November.
DRAM bottomed and NAND flash prices have jumped. Micron says that 2025E could be a record year for the Memory industry.
High valuations make near-term upside for Memory names uncertain. For Long/Shorts one can consider Long Micron vs. Short SK Hynix or Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.


Memory Monitor: Micron Expects 2025E to Be Best-Ever for Memory; But Valuations Have Run Up a Lot

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.</li>
<li>Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.</li>
<li>Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.
Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.
Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

Powertech Technology Inc. tests, packages, and assembles integrated circuits (ICS).  The Company's products and services include memory product test and various kinds of IC package services, such as thin small-outline package (TSOP) services.

Asmedia Technology Inc designs mulitmedia integrated control(IC) chip and high frequency mixed mode IC chip. The company's products inlcude high speed digit switch, nand flash controller and super speed USB controller.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

MA-COM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. provides high performance analog semiconductor solutions. The Company supplies semiconductors, active and passive components, and sub-assemblies for use in radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave applications. MA-COM Technology Solutions serves customers throughout the United States.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. operates in the business of researching, producing and selling of LED epitaxial wafers and wafers.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures discrete semiconductor devices. The Company's main products are High Voltage Diode, Silicon Rectifier Diode, Silicon Bridge Rectifier, MWO High Voltage Silicon Diode and special High Voltage Silicon Diode .

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Raising TSMC Growth Target; Memory Rally

The market was generally positive after Nvidia's GTC conference last week with key Taiwan server and other AI-linked names rising substantially....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Expects 2025E to Be Best-Ever for Memory; But Valuations Have Run Up a Lot

High valuations and the recent bull run make near-term upside for Memory names uncertain. For Long/Shorts one can consider Long Micron vs. Short SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Raising TSMC Growth Target; Memory Rally

The market was generally positive after Nvidia's GTC conference last week with key Taiwan server and other AI-linked names rising substantially....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron

​Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Expects 2025E to Be Best-Ever for Memory; But Valuations Have Run Up a Lot

High valuations and the recent bull run make near-term upside for Memory names uncertain. For Long/Shorts one can consider Long Micron vs. Short SK...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Microsoft's new AI features for Windows require a minimum of 16GB of DRAM, prompting accelerated PC upgrades and a pulling forward of the demand...