IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s offers from Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).</li>
<li>A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.</li>
</ul>



Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022
DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. 


Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.
JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY
DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.


Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Mitsui&amp;Co has been in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/relia-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16219:1" rel="noopener">Relia Inc (4708 JP)</a> for a long time. As part of investing in BPO/RPA/AI services, they are buying out Relia, merging it with a KDDI sub.</li>
<li>They are buying it at an all-time high, and a 50% premium. Looks nice. But it's not nice enough.</li>
<li>This is one of those times when I can reiterate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-needs-more-cowbell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41191" rel="noopener">Japan Needs More Cowbell</a>. </li>
</ul>


Mitsui&amp;Co has been in Relia Inc (4708 JP) for a long time. As part of investing in BPO/RPA/AI services, they are buying out Relia, merging it with a KDDI sub.
They are buying it at an all-time high, and a 50% premium. Looks nice. But it's not nice enough.
This is one of those times when I can reiterate, Japan Needs More Cowbell. 


Mitsui & Co To Buy Out Relia (4708) - Moshi Moshi Is TOO CHEAP

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. </li>
<li>Hancock’s latest bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU)'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.
The Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. 
Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.


Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

Japan

Sumitomo Corp is a general trading company.  The Company imports and exports a wide variety of goods such as metals, machinery, chemicals, fuel,food products, and textiles.  Sumitomo also operates real estate, construction, shipping, insurance, finance, and leasing businesses.

Marubeni Corporation is a trading company with business divisions in iron & steel, information technology, utility & infrastructure, energy, food, metals & mineral resources, development & construction, and chemicals.  The Company markets its products globally through a network of sales offices and representative firms.

TOYOTA TSUSHO CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Group, is a trading company. The Company markets automobiles, trucks, steel products, industrial machinery, chemical products, and energy in both domestic and overseas markets.  Toyota Tsusho primarily exports Toyota cars to Southeast Asia, China, the Middle East, and Latin America.

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

MonotaRO Co., Ltd. mainly sells machine tools, engine parts, and factory consumable goods on the web site.

Sojitz Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business divisions such as Machinery & Aerospace, Energy & Mineral Resources, Chemicals & Plastics, Real Estate Development & Forest Products, Consumer Lifestyle Business, and New Business Development Group.  Sojitz was formed through the business integration between Nichimen and Nissho Iwai.

MISUMI Group Inc. distributes precision machinery parts by mail order. The products include a variety of components such as press die, plastic mold, automated machinery, pc & network, and wiring.  The Company also sells supplies for factories, hospitals, and restaurants and semi-conductors by mail order.

IWATANI CORPORATION is a trading company supplying gases for industrial and household use.  The Company also handles fuel, consumer products, industrial materials, minerals, construction, agriculture, and medical products.  Iwatani produces liquid hydrogen with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

NAGASE & COMPANY, LTD. is a trading firm specializing in chemical products such as dyestuff, synthetic resins and rubber, and inorganic and organic chemicals.  The Company also handles electronics such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment and liquid crystal display (LCD) materials, as well as health care products such as cosmetics and medical equipment.

Adani Enterprises Limited is an international trading house that operates from offices in India as well as other countries. The Company is involved in coal mining, cargo handling and power generation.  Adani also trades in a large number of products including textiles, energy, metals and agricultural products.

United Rentals, Inc., through its subsidiary, is an equipment rental company operating a network of locations in the United States and Canada.  The Company serves the construction industry, industrial and commercial concerns, homeowners, and other individuals.

Fastenal Company sell industrial and construction supplies in a wholesale and retail fashion.  The Company markets its products and services throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Singapore, China, and The Netherlands.

Watsco, Inc. distributes air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, as well as related parts and supplies.  The Company operates various locations in the United States, with primary markets in the Sunbelt.

W.W. Grainger, Inc. distributes maintenance, repair and operating supplies, and related information to the commercial, industrial, contractor, and institutional markets in North America.  The Company's products include motors, HVAC equipment, lighting, hand and power tools, pumps, and electrical equipment.

Ashtead Group Plc is an international equipment rental company servicing customers nationwide in the US and the UK. The Company rents construction and industrial equipment. Ashtead generates approximately 85% of its revenue in the US through its subsidiary, Sunbelt Rentals with 388 locations across the US. The Group's UK business, A-Plant, has 106 locations nationwide.

Bunzl plc is a distribution group supplying a range of non-food consumable products for customers to operate their businesses but which they do not actually sell. The Company partners with both suppliers and customers in providing outsourcing solutions and service oriented distribution. Bunzl's main customer markets include grocery, foodservice, cleaning and safety.

AerCap Holdings NV is the world's largest aircraft leasing firm by fleet value, and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (AER). It has its headquarters in Dublin with offices in Amsterdam, Los Angeles, Shannon, Fort Lauderdale, Singapore, Shanghai, Abu Dhabi, Seattle and Toulouse.

Ferguson PLC distributes HVAC and industrial supplies. The Company offers products for heating and ventilation, fabrication, facilities supply, and residential construction. Ferguson serves customers in North America.

Ashtead Group plc operates as an international equipment rental company. The Company rents construction and industrial equipment. Ashtead Group serves customers in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada.

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

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Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

Unlikely to see another bump as stretched valuations and deal fatigue sets in. Trading through Hancock's terms, the slim 1.3% spread to Strike’s...

Arun George

Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally. NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; JP CORE Inflation hits 4%; Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat; BOJ speculation dominates as Kuroda heads to Davos ; Dec Machine Tools +1%YoY. Global stealth rally...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsui & Co To Buy Out Relia (4708) - Moshi Moshi Is TOO CHEAP

Mitsui is buying out Relia (4708) formerly known as Moshi Moshi Hotline. It is an all-time high and big premium, but it is the wrong price. But...

Travis Lundy

Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

MinRes' offer is open. Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to...

Arun George

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