Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in October 2023, a consortium including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific (142 HK)</a> took <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a> private. First Pac's 46.2% share at delisting was worth ~US$1.25bn.</li>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui (8031 JP)</a>-backed Mit-Pacific's possible stake in a tollway operator held by MPIC, First Pac's 43.2% holding in MPIC, including the 47.5% stake in Meralco, is potentially worth ~US$3.21bn.</li>
<li>The question is whether this recent development from Mitsui has any bearing. First Pac's discount to NAV is elevated versus its historical trading range. </li>
</ul>


Back in October 2023, a consortium including First Pacific (142 HK) took Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) private. First Pac's 46.2% share at delisting was worth ~US$1.25bn.
Following Mitsui (8031 JP)-backed Mit-Pacific's possible stake in a tollway operator held by MPIC, First Pac's 43.2% holding in MPIC, including the 47.5% stake in Meralco, is potentially worth ~US$3.21bn.
The question is whether this recent development from Mitsui has any bearing. First Pac's discount to NAV is elevated versus its historical trading range. 


First Pacific (142 HK): Even More Value In The Stub

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a> has announced that the public float of the stock will drop to 2.78% following the Tender Offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a> shares are expected to be suspended from 26 September. That could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP INDEX</a> on 25 September.</li>
<li>There will be large passive inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> as well as flows from active managers that track the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP INDEX</a>.</li>
</ul>



Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) has announced that the public float of the stock will drop to 2.78% following the Tender Offer.

Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) shares are expected to be suspended from 26 September. That could see Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) added to the PCOMP INDEX on 25 September.
There will be large passive inflows to Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) as well as flows from active managers that track the PCOMP INDEX.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Delisting Could See Bloomberry Added

<ul>
<li>Based on data to the close on 27 April, we do not expect any changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> at the August rebalance.</li>
<li>However, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a> tender offer and voluntary delisting will open up an index spot that will need to be filled.</li>
<li>At the current time, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloomberry-resorts-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17961:1" rel="noopener">Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)</a> is the highest ranked non-index constituent and is the most likely replacement.</li>
</ul>


Based on data to the close on 27 April, we do not expect any changes to the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the August rebalance.
However, the Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) tender offer and voluntary delisting will open up an index spot that will need to be filled.
At the current time, Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) is the highest ranked non-index constituent and is the most likely replacement.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: MPI Tender Offer Opens Up an Index Spot

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maynilad-water-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44852:1" rel="noopener">Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.</li>
<li>The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.</li>
<li>Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> inclusion could take place in August 2026.</li>
</ul>



Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) is looking to raise up to US$860m by selling shares at ₱20/share, valuing the company at US$2.82bn.
The market cap and free float will depend on the number of shares sold in the IPO and whether the shares in the upsize option are primary or secondary shares.
Global index inclusions should take place in November and December, while Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion could take place in August 2026.


Maynilad Water (MYNLD PM): Index Inclusion Timing for a Large Philippines IPO

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> merger is a done deal.  The key risk, as with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>'s Offer, is one of timing.</li>
<li>IF you are an arbitrageur,  Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> vs A Basket of FHC Peers (not including Taishin).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>'s 46.2% share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>at delisting last year was worth ~US$1.25bn. It is now potentially worth ~US$3.21bn. </li>
</ul>


The Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)/Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) merger is a done deal.  The key risk, as withTCM (570 HK)'s Offer, is one of timing.
IF you are an arbitrageur,  Buy Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) vs A Basket of FHC Peers (not including Taishin).

First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s 46.2% share of Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)at delisting last year was worth ~US$1.25bn. It is now potentially worth ~US$3.21bn. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Guotai/Haitong, Shin Kong, China Conch Ventures, First Pac, Zhejiang E'way

Philippines

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water, sanitation and sewerage services, and also operates in real estate, infrastructure projects, toll roads, electricity distribution, hospital operations and light rail.

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Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)

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