Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ChipMOS results missed expectations with capacity utilization falling, dragging down profitability.</li>
<li>The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take longer to recover.</li>
<li>We believe ChipMOS is cheap if one looks through the cycle, and it is relatively unloved by the Street hence the expectations bar is set low.</li>
</ul>


ChipMOS results missed expectations with capacity utilization falling, dragging down profitability.
The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take longer to recover.
We believe ChipMOS is cheap if one looks through the cycle, and it is relatively unloved by the Street hence the expectations bar is set low.


ChipMOS: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Signs of Recovery, Cheap Through Cycle

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.</li>
<li>Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.</li>
<li>Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.
Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.
Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

<ul>
<li>Long Micron vs. Short Nanya - We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Nanya Technology based on multiple factors.</li>
<li>Relative valuation and inventory management appears to favor Micron. Nanya Technology's inventory days blow-out increases risk of write-downs impacting its next earnings.</li>
<li>Potential news flow also appears to favor Micron as the US CHIPS Act rolls out.</li>
</ul>


Long Micron vs. Short Nanya - We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Nanya Technology based on multiple factors.
Relative valuation and inventory management appears to favor Micron. Nanya Technology's inventory days blow-out increases risk of write-downs impacting its next earnings.
Potential news flow also appears to favor Micron as the US CHIPS Act rolls out.


Memory Monitor: Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Technology; Nanya Relatively Over-Valued

<ul>
<li>Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.</li>
<li>Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)</li>
<li>TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.
Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)
TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June</li>
<li>During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost</li>
<li>NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June
During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost
NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines


Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

ChipMOS: Semiconductor Packaging & Testing Signs of Recovery, Cheap Through Cycle

The company sees 1Q23E as the bottom for its performance, followed by a 2Q23E rebound. However, it says it believes the Memory industry may take...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

Firms are also significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Technology; Nanya Relatively Over-Valued

Relative valuation and inventory management appears to favor Micron. Nanya Technology's inventory days blow-out increases risk of write-downs...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

The semiconductor memory market has collapsed, but the collapse is nearly over for Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, WDC, and Kioxia.

Jim Handy

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